Trump admits president's party usually struggles in midterms, says no one has campaigned like him

President Donald Trump opened his rally in Corinth, Mississippi, by acknowledging that the president's party does not usually perform well in midterm elections, a week before the 3 November vote. He then said nobody had campaigned the way he has, pointing to his many trips around the United States in support of Republicans.

The remarks matter for markets and investors because the 2026 midterm elections will decide whether the Republican Party keeps control of Congress. Strategists quoted by one outlet expect a divided federal government after the vote, with the size of the majorities potentially mattering to stocks.

What happened

Trump spoke in deep-red Mississippi at an event for Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith, a Republican Senate candidate. Of the race, he said: "I can't take a chance."

His comments on the president's party reflect a pattern in which the party in the White House usually loses ground. According to the sources, the aim of his travel over the past month has been to help Republicans keep control of Congress, with White House and outside consultants shaping the stops.

What is the political backdrop?

Polling indicates voters are souring on Trump and congressional Republicans, mainly because of dissatisfaction with the economy. House Majority Leader Steve Scalise said on 30 April that Republicans could still win a House majority despite intense headwinds. The Senate is described as a tougher climb for Democrats.

• Midterm election date: 3 November.
• Elon Musk has committed $366 million to the midterms, backing Republicans in key races.
• Among South Asian Americans who voted for Trump in 2024, 25% plan to back Democrats, according to a recent survey.
• Alaska's Senate race could help decide which party holds the Senate majority.

Why it matters

The rally matters because Trump is publicly framing the midterms as a test of his own campaigning effort, at a time when his approval ratings have touched historic lows. One report on 24 October noted that approval had improved ahead of the vote, though it said voters link his foreign policy to their cost of living.

The stakes extend to markets. Strategists say a bigger-than-expected Democratic win could bring what they call "short-lived weakness" for stocks, while a divided government is already widely expected.

Which issues are driving voters?

Risks and counterpoints

Democrats are also campaigning hard. Barack Obama returned to the trail in Ohio and Michigan to support Democratic Senate candidates as Republicans try to hold the chamber. In Alaska, the Department of Justice sued to block certification of the Senate winner if a Republican narrowly loses, while Democrat Mary Peltola seeks a quick dismissal of the suit, adding legal uncertainty to a close contest.

What to watch next

The main date is 3 November, when voters decide control of the House and Senate. Early voting has already begun in various states.

• Results in Senate battlegrounds including Michigan, Ohio and Alaska.
• The court fight over certification of the Alaska Senate result.
• Whether the size of any Democratic majority triggers the market weakness strategists describe.