Russians with EU residence permits reach 876,600, up 13.6% since 2021, Eurostat data show

The number of Russians holding residence permits in the European Union rose to 876,600 at the end of 2025, about 105,000 more than when Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, according to an analysis of Eurostat data. The figure is 13.6% above the 771,800 recorded in 2021.

The data matter because they show how the war has reshaped the movement of people, skills and capital across Europe and its neighbourhood, even as several EU states have tightened their migration policies towards Russians. Russian emigration to Europe is uneven: it is rising sharply in the south and falling in parts of the east.

What happened

The Eurostat analysis shows that 876,600 Russian nationals held valid temporary or permanent residence permits across EU member states at the end of 2025. In 2021, the year before the invasion, the figure was 771,800.

Germany hosts the largest community, with 218,000 residents. Spain follows with 116,800, then Estonia with 78,400. France hosts 67,000 Russian permit holders.

• Total in the EU at the end of 2025: 876,600, against 771,800 in 2021 (+13.6%).
• Germany: 218,000.
• Spain: 116,800, with 44,400 permits issued to Russians over the period.
• Estonia: 78,400.
• France: 67,000, with 13,700 permits issued over the period.

Where has growth been fastest?

Southern Europe has seen the sharpest growth. Spain issued residence permits to 44,400 Russian nationals over the period and France to 13,700. Cyprus and Portugal saw their Russian-born populations increase 2.5 and 3.5 times, respectively.

Where have numbers fallen?

Several EU states have moved in the opposite direction. Latvia, Estonia and the Czech Republic have recorded the largest drops in Russian residents. The analysis attributes this to tough migration policies and, in the Baltic states, to security concerns over large Russian-speaking communities.

Why are Russians leaving, and who are they?

Fear of military mobilisation is one of the main drivers of the exodus. Researchers tracking emigration have identified at least four distinct waves since February 2022, and the most recent, running from spring 2026, has been sparked by renewed claims of impending mobilisation.

Anastasia Burakova, a lawyer and founder of Kovcheg, a legal assistance project for Russians abroad, described the mood this way:

"Everyone now understands that they have no future in Russia."

She spoke in the analysis of the emigration data published in 2026. She added that risks linked to mobilisation and conscription are felt very personally.

Surveys by independent researchers show that emigrants are predominantly young couples, often without children, with both partners under 36. They tend to be highly educated and concentrated in professions vulnerable to political repression, such as journalism and human rights work, or in high international demand, particularly IT, engineering and academia. Around 20% of those who left do not hold university degrees, and some 18% are studying or plan to study abroad.

Which countries outside the EU are hosting Russians?

Significant communities have also formed outside the EU. In Serbia the Russian population rose from roughly 5,000 before the invasion to 61,900 by the end of 2025.

By spring 2026, Kazakhstan had absorbed more than 107,000 Russian migrants, while Armenia and Georgia hosted 43,500 and 70,000, respectively. Turkey drew large numbers immediately after the invasion but later tightened residency rules; by June, valid Russian permits there had fallen to 75,900, half the 2023 peak.

What has been the economic effect?

According to analysis published by the CASE Center research institute, the influx of people and capital contributed to GDP growth of between 9% and 9.4% in Armenia and Georgia at its peak between 2022 and 2024. Growth has since settled back to 5–7% annually as host economies adapted.

Average Russian household incomes in Serbia ran to around €3,500 per month against a local average of €900. In Georgia the figures were €3,300 against €650. Most migrants have worked remotely or set up their own businesses rather than compete for local jobs: up to 41% of those in IT have kept income from foreign clients, and around 21% in media.

Why it matters

The rise in Russian residents matters because it shows that the war continues to push skilled people out of Russia, with host economies gaining workers, taxpayers and consumers. For EU governments it also raises policy questions, as the data show markedly different national approaches, from the Baltic states and the Czech Republic to Spain, Portugal and Cyprus.

The totals are modest compared with the EU population but significant in individual countries. Estonia's 78,400 Russian permit holders sit alongside the security concerns the analysis cites for the Baltic states, which explains why numbers there are falling.

What are the counterpoints and uncertainties?

Returns to Russia are disputed. The independent OutRush sociological project estimated that no more than 8% of emigrants had returned by summer 2024, with around 5% more intending to do so. The Institute of Applied Economic Research at RANEPA, a state-linked academic institution, put the return rate from the 2022–2023 wave at roughly 10%.

Estimates from consulting firms and recruitment agencies are considerably higher, ranging from 16% among IT workers to 40–45% of those who left at the peak. The analysis also notes that migrants fall into three broad groups: those who expect to stay abroad long term, those who have moved once and are preparing to relocate again, and those still in Russia who intend to leave within six months.

Permit statistics, moreover, count legal residents holding permits, not all people who have left Russia, and they differ by country in how they are recorded.

What to watch next

The next developments depend on both Russian policy and diplomacy. U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff was due in Russia on 21 October for talks with President Vladimir Putin about ending the conflict with Ukraine, according to reports on that day.

• Whether renewed claims of mobilisation, which drove the latest wave from spring 2026, translate into further departures.
• Whether EU states such as Germany, Spain, Estonia and France change permit policies towards Russians.
• Further Eurostat releases on residence permits, which will show if the 876,600 total keeps rising.
• The outcome of the U.S.–Russia talks on ending the war, which could change migration incentives.