Brent falls 3.01% to 109.7 as Goldman Sachs outlines a $140 supply-shock case

Brent crude oil stood at 109.7 on Monday, down 3.01% from the previous close of 113.1. The move came as Goldman Sachs raised its oil price projections and set out a severe supply scenario.

What happened

Brent was down 3.4 points from its previous close of 113.1 in early trading on 2 November. The level of 109.7 was recorded at 05:41 UTC.

Goldman Sachs lifted its oil price projections, citing mounting geopolitical risks and potential supply disruptions in the Gulf. The bank warned that Brent could reach $140 per barrel in 2027 under a prolonged supply shock scenario.

The bank pointed to shipping attacks, infrastructure damage and tensions in the Middle East as factors that support prices.

Why it matters

The Gulf is a key source of crude supply, so any disruption there can affect global energy prices. The factors Goldman Sachs lists cover both the transport of oil and the physical facilities that produce it. The $140 figure is the bank's own scenario for a prolonged shock, not a market quote.

Oil prices feed into inflation, transport costs and corporate margins across many economies. This is why political risk in producing regions draws attention from policymakers and market participants alike. Brent was lower on the session even as the bank described the upside risk, which shows that daily price moves and long-range scenarios can point in different directions.

For investors, the episode shows how geopolitical developments and bank views can shape the oil market, and how a scenario differs from a base case.

What to watch next

Two manufacturing surveys give a view of industrial demand, which is a key driver of oil consumption. China's S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for October was 52, against a 51.6 estimate and a previous reading of 52.1.

In the United States, the ISM Manufacturing PMI for October is scheduled for release at 15:00 UTC on Monday. The estimate is 54.6, and the previous reading was 54.5. The figure has not been published yet.

Developments in the Gulf, including any new attacks on shipping or damage to infrastructure, are the factors the bank names as supporting prices. Brent's next moves will also depend on how markets weigh these risks against demand data from the two surveys.