US October CPI due at 13:30 UTC as Brent slips 1.48% and EUR/USD edges up
US inflation data for October lead the agenda on 10 November, with annual inflation expected at 3.9% against 3.7% in September. Brent trades lower and EUR/USD is slightly higher.
- 01US annual inflation for October is due at 13:30 UTC, with an estimate of 3.9% against 3.7% previously
- 02Core annual inflation is expected at 2.8%, against 2.6% in the previous reading
- 03Brent crude stands at 91.2, down 1.48%; EUR/USD is at 1.1231, up 0.11%
- 04German trade surplus for September was 15.6 B against a 19.2 B estimate
The US consumer price report for October is the main event on the macro agenda on 10 November, due at 13:30 UTC. Annual inflation is expected at 3.9%, against 3.7% in the previous reading.
What happened
Two releases came out before the European session. Germany reported a trade surplus of 15.6 B for September, against a 19.2 B estimate and 17.8 B previously. In the UK, the BRC Retail Sales Monitor showed annual growth of 1.1% for October, against a 1.2% estimate and 1% in the previous reading.
In markets, EUR/USD stands at 1.1231, up 0.11% from the previous close of 1.1218. Brent crude stands at 91.2, down 1.48% from 92.57.
Why it matters
The US inflation report carries several components. Core annual inflation is expected at 2.8%, against 2.6% previously. On a monthly basis, the headline rate is expected at 0.3%, against 0.6% in the previous reading. Core monthly inflation is expected at 0.2%, against 0.3%.
The index level readings are also scheduled. The seasonally adjusted CPI has an estimate of 337, against 336.3 previously. The inflation rate index has an estimate of 337.02, against 336.94. These levels show how much the price basket has risen over the month.
Annual headline inflation is expected to rise by 0.2 percentage points, and the core rate by the same amount. The monthly headline rate is expected to slow from the previous pace. Energy prices also matter for headline readings, and Brent is lower in early trading. For investors, the print is a key input for assessing the inflation path and its effect on monetary policy and currency markets.
The German trade figure adds context for the euro area. A surplus of 15.6 B, below the 19.2 B estimate and the 17.8 B of the previous month, shows a narrower external balance for the largest euro area economy.
What to watch next
The next event is the US release at 13:30 UTC. The annual, monthly and core readings will be compared with the estimates of 3.9%, 0.3% and 2.8% respectively.
After the release, attention will turn to how EUR/USD and Brent react, starting from 1.1231 and 91.2 in early trading. The UK retail reading and the German trade data are already in the market.
Sources:UCapital Markets (ucapital.com)
UCapital24 S.p.A. or group companies may have commercial relationships with the companies mentioned. This content is not financial advice.
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