Macro agenda: JOLTs and US midterms follow German retail slump and firm ISM
German September retail sales fell 2% on the month against a 0.4% estimate. US ISM manufacturing rose to 55.5 against 54.6. Today the focus turns to US JOLTs job openings and the midterm elections.
- 01German retail sales fell 2% month on month in September, against a 0.4% estimate; the annual rate was -2.3%, against an estimate of -0.3%
- 02US ISM Manufacturing PMI for October was 55.5, against a 54.6 estimate and 54.5 previously
- 03US JOLTs job openings for September are due at 15:00 UTC; the estimate is 7.13 M, after 7.08 M
- 04Brent trades at 106.35, up 1.51%, while EUR/USD is flat at 1.1194
The macro agenda for 3 November opens with US midterm elections and the September JOLTs job openings report. Both follow a session in which German retail sales fell sharply and US factory activity strengthened.
What happened
German retail sales fell 2% month on month in September, against an estimate of 0.4%. The previous reading was an increase of 1.2%. On the year, sales declined 2.3%, against an estimate of -0.3%, which was also the previous figure.
In the United States, the ISM Manufacturing PMI for October came in at 55.5, against an estimate of 54.6. The previous reading was 54.5. The release was published on Monday at 15:00 UTC.
In early trading, Brent crude stands at 106.35, up 1.58 or 1.51% from the previous close of 104.77. EUR/USD is little changed at 1.1194, against a previous close of 1.1191.
Why it matters
The German data point to weak household demand in Europe's largest economy. Retail sales are a direct gauge of consumer spending, which is a key component of growth.
The US manufacturing survey points in the opposite direction. A reading of 55.5, up from 54.5, indicates that factory activity strengthened in October. The divergence between soft European consumption and firm US industry is the backdrop for the currency market, where EUR/USD has barely moved.
The oil price adds a further variable. Brent above 106 raises energy costs for importers and is relevant for inflation and for the policy debate in both economies. For investors, the data show uneven momentum across the two regions, with energy prices as an additional factor to monitor.
What to watch next
The US midterm elections are scheduled for the day, with the calendar entry set at 00:00 UTC. No figures are published for this event. The outcome can shape the outlook for US fiscal policy, and markets will follow the results as they come in.
At 15:00 UTC the United States releases JOLTs job openings for September. The estimate is 7.13 M, against a previous reading of 7.08 M. The report measures labor demand and will show whether the labor market is moving with the firm manufacturing data.
Participants will also follow whether EUR/USD leaves its narrow range after the JOLTs release, and whether Brent holds its gains above 106.
Sources:UCapital Markets (ucapital.com)
UCapital24 S.p.A. or group companies may have commercial relationships with the companies mentioned. This content is not financial advice.
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