Trump signals optimism on Ukraine peace talks set for Abu Dhabi

President Donald Trump signaled optimism about ending Russia's war in Ukraine on Tuesday, ahead of trilateral negotiations set to begin later in the day in Abu Dhabi. The talks are described as U.S.-brokered.

What happened

Trump said he sees a "strong inclination" to end the war. He spoke before the negotiating session, which is scheduled for later on November 10 in the capital of the United Arab Emirates. The session brings together three parties, according to the description of the talks as trilateral.

Separately, China released its October trade data at 03:00 UTC. Exports rose 35.2% year on year, against an estimate of 33.5% and a previous reading of 36.3%. Imports rose 41.6%, against an estimate of 32% and a previous 31%.

China's trade surplus came in at 105.28 billion, against an estimate of 125.8 billion. The previous reading was 133.53 billion.

Why it matters

A diplomatic effort to end the war in Ukraine is a political decision with documented market channels. Energy prices, sanctions policy, regional risk assessments and trade flows are among the channels that investors usually follow in such conflicts. The decision rests with the governments at the table, and the talks are the first step in that process on this day.

The Chinese figures give a separate reading of global demand. Import growth of 41.6% is well above the previous 31%, while export growth stayed above 35%. The narrower surplus reflects imports growing faster than exports, as the difference between the two readings shows.

For investors, the day combines a geopolitical signal with fresh trade data. The Chinese release has already been published, while the diplomatic talks have yet to begin.

What to watch next

The first event is the start of the trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi later on Tuesday. Statements from the participants after the session will show whether the optimism expressed by Trump is shared by the other parties.

The second is the US inflation report for October, due at 13:30 UTC. The annual inflation rate is estimated at 3.9%, against a previous 3.7%. The monthly rate is estimated at 0.3%, against a previous 0.6%.

Core inflation is also due. The annual rate is estimated at 2.8%, against 2.6% previously, and the monthly rate at 0.2%, against 0.3% previously. The consumer price index, seasonally adjusted, is estimated at 337, against a previous 336.3.