Rubio sees no near Iran breakthrough as oil falls and Congress returns

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Monday, November 9, that talks with Iran remain far from a breakthrough. Oil prices fell the same day after President Donald Trump said renewed strikes on Iran were "highly unlikely" if negotiations make progress.

What happened

Rubio described some Iranian demands as unreasonable and saw little hope of a diplomatic breakthrough on the Middle East deadlock. Trump's comment on strikes came with a condition: that the talks move forward.

In Washington, Congress returns to work. Government funding and the debt limit are on the agenda, along with the nomination of Pete Hegseth and a long list of other legislation. The Republican party controls both the Senate and the House for under two more months.

In Beijing, China denied on Monday that there was a spy plot to ensnare Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang. It called the spying allegations unsubstantiated and a smear campaign against Beijing.

Why it matters

Iran talks and oil prices are linked, because markets react to signals on possible military action in the Middle East. Trump's conditional remark and Rubio's pessimistic assessment point in different directions, and oil moved lower on Monday.

US domestic politics is also shifting. G7 diplomats will meet in Paris to assess the impact of Trump's midterm setback. They said Democratic gains could narrow the White House's room for manoeuvre. They also warned against expecting a return to traditional US multilateralism while foreign policy remains under Trump's control.

Axis Mutual Fund said India could benefit from the midterm outcome through lower oil prices and yields. It said Democratic gains may ease geopolitical tensions. It added that support for foreign portfolio flows depends on earnings growth.

US data from the previous week adds to the backdrop. Nonfarm payrolls for October were 165 K against a 65 K estimate, and the unemployment rate was 4.1% against a 4.2% estimate. Michigan consumer sentiment for November was 51 against a 48 estimate. China's October inflation rate was 0.7% year on year against a 0.8% estimate, after 0.9% previously. For investors, political decisions on Iran, US budget matters and trade tensions are channels through which oil, rates and technology shares can move.

What to watch next

The next signals on Iran will come from any further statements by Rubio and Trump and from the state of the negotiations. Oil prices are the market channel most exposed to those headlines.

In Congress, the first steps on government funding and the debt limit will show how Republicans use their remaining time with majorities. The G7 meeting in Paris will show how allies read the reduced room for manoeuvre of the White House.

In Israel, former military chief Gadi Eisenkot aims to replace Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Forming a new government still requires numbers and political agreements, and the path ahead is lengthy.