TTF prices ease as Norway supply risks recede

European natural gas futures slipped more than 1% to €33.1 per megawatt-hour, easing after last week’s sharp 8% rally, as traders reassessed supply risks.

Concerns over Norway’s giant Troll field disruptions eased slightly, with operators signaling that curbs would be less severe than initially feared. Nonetheless, planned maintenance across multiple Norwegian facilities will temporarily tighten flows, keeping sentiment cautious.

Europe’s attention remains firmly on winter stockpiling. EU gas storage is currently 75.5% full, well below the nearly 91% level reached by this point in 2024. The gap highlights both stronger demand and weaker supply conditions this summer.

Country-level disparities are emerging: Germany, Europe’s largest gas consumer, is lagging at 68.6%, while Italy (87.4%) and France (83.8%) are progressing more smoothly. Analysts warn that if injection rates do not accelerate in September, Germany could face a tighter margin heading into peak heating demand.

On the geopolitical front, risks remain elevated. The war in Ukraine shows no signs of resolution, and the energy front is increasingly targeted. Over the weekend, Ukraine struck Russian energy facilities at the Ust-Luga port on the Baltic Sea, underscoring vulnerabilities in export infrastructure. At the same time, US President Trump has warned of additional sanctions on Moscow, raising uncertainty over future Russian LNG and pipeline flows to global markets.

While European storage levels are not yet at critical lows, the combination of slower replenishment, infrastructure maintenance, and persistent geopolitical tensions suggests heightened volatility ahead. Traders remain alert to both Norwegian maintenance schedules and further Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy assets, which could quickly reverse the current price dip.