Oil eases as market reports eyed

WTI crude futures slipped below $60 per barrel on Tuesday, extending recent weakness though prices have largely traded sideways this week as investors awaited key industry outlooks amid rising concerns of a potential global supply surplus.

Market participants are closely watching upcoming data releases, with OPEC set to publish its monthly oil market report on Wednesday, followed by the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) annual outlook—both expected to provide clearer signals on future demand trends and production balances.

Oil prices have been under persistent downward pressure in recent weeks as forecasts suggest global supply could outpace consumption through early 2026. OPEC and its allies, including Russia, have gradually eased output curbs, while non-OPEC producers such as the United States, Brazil, and Guyana continue to expand production capacity, intensifying concerns of a renewed glut in the market.

Meanwhile, geopolitical developments have added another layer of uncertainty. Russia’s top oil companies, Rosneft PJSC and Lukoil PJSC, are facing heightened US sanctions tied to the ongoing Ukraine conflict, constraining parts of their export operations. Reports indicate that Lukoil declared force majeure on several crude shipments from its West Qurna 2 field in Iraq, raising logistical challenges and potentially affecting regional supply chains.

Elsewhere, US President Donald Trump stated that a bilateral trade deal with India is “getting closer,” as New Delhi scales back purchases of Russian crude in response to Western pressure and diversifies toward Middle Eastern and US supplies.

The remarks fueled speculation that stronger US–India energy cooperation could partially offset lost Russian exports, though analysts warned that weaker global demand growth—particularly from China’s slowing industrial activity—could limit any upside momentum for prices in the near term.

Overall, traders remain cautious ahead of the OPEC and IEA reports, which are expected to shed light on how quickly inventories might build and whether deeper production adjustments will be needed to stabilize the oil market going into 2026.