Oil drops as Iraq resumes Kurdish exports, OPEC+ eyes output hike

Brent crude futures fell below $70 per barrel on Monday, retreating after Iraq’s Kurdistan region resumed crude exports over the weekend following a two-and-a-half-year halt, while OPEC+ signaled plans for another output increase.

The restart, enabled by an agreement between Iraq’s federal government, the Kurdistan Regional Government, and international oil companies, will initially allow 180,000–190,000 barrels per day to flow through Turkey’s Ceyhan port. Volumes are expected to gradually rise toward 230,000 bpd, with US diplomatic pressure credited for helping bring Kurdish crude back to international markets.

The timing coincides with OPEC+ efforts to further expand supply in pursuit of market share. Reports suggest the group is set to approve at least a 137,000 bpd increase for November at its meeting later this week, adding to worries about oversupply.

Last week, Brent rallied more than 5%—its biggest weekly gain since June—after Ukraine’s intensified strikes on Russian energy infrastructure curtailed Moscow’s fuel exports and raised the risk of broader supply disruptions.

WTI crude futures also fell, dropping below $65 per barrel, with traders weighing the opposing forces of renewed Kurdish flows and prospective OPEC+ increases against ongoing geopolitical risks.

Analysts noted that while recent supply shocks had lent support, the return of significant Kurdish exports may ease some of the pressure in global crude markets just as seasonal demand begins to soften.