Gold gains on Fed rate outlook

Gold prices advanced toward $3,360 per ounce on Wednesday as investors weighed the Federal Reserve’s policy trajectory following the latest U.S. consumer price data.

July’s headline inflation rate eased to 2.7%, coming in below the 2.8% market forecast, while core inflation rose to 3.1% from 2.9%, its highest in six months. The softer-than-expected headline figure tempered fears that tariffs would trigger a new wave of price pressures, bolstering expectations for a 25-basis-point Fed rate cut in September and enhancing the appeal of non-yielding bullion.

Market attention now shifts to upcoming U.S. data releases, including the Producer Price Index, weekly jobless claims, and retail sales, all of which could refine the outlook for interest rates. The direction of gold may also hinge on clarity around U.S. tariff policy for bullion imports, after recent conflicting signals created uncertainty.

Last week, Customs and Border Protection startled markets by reclassifying 1-kilogram and 100-ounce gold bars under a tariffed customs code, while on Monday President Donald Trump insisted there would be no levy on gold imports. Traders remain cautious until the official stance is confirmed.

Broader geopolitical and trade developments are also shaping sentiment. The U.S. extended its tariff truce with China for 90 days, easing some concerns over global trade disruption, while investors are closely watching the upcoming U.S.–Russia talks in a bid to resolve the war in Ukraine. Although the White House has described the Trump–Putin meeting as primarily “a listening exercise,” any progress could reduce geopolitical risk premiums, potentially tempering safe-haven demand.

Against this backdrop, gold remains supported not only by the prospect of lower U.S. interest rates but also by persistent macro uncertainties — from trade policy shifts to geopolitical flashpoints. With the Fed’s September meeting approaching and policy clarity on bullion tariffs still pending, market volatility in the precious metals space is likely to remain elevated in the weeks ahead.