UK government borrowing tops forecast in October ahead of budget

UK public sector borrowing was higher than expected last month, numbers on Friday showed, ahead of next week's government budget.

The Office for National Statistics said net borrowing amounted to GBP17.43 billion in October, easing from GBP19.89 billion in September, but above an FXStreet cited forecast of GBP15.2 billion.

On-year, it fell from GBP19.28 billion, however, the latest figure was the third-highest ever for an October since monthly records began in 1993. It was also topped by the October 2020 borrowing figure.

"Borrowing in the financial year to October 2025 was GBP116.8 billion; this was GBP9.0 billion (or 8.4%) more than in the same seven-month period of 2024 and the second-highest April to October borrowing (not adjusted for inflation) on record, after that of 2020," the ONS said.

"The current budget deficit – borrowing to fund day-to-day public sector activities – was GBP12.6 billion in October 2025; this brings the total current budget deficit in the financial year to October 2025 to GBP83.9 billion, which is GBP7.4 billion (or 9.7%) more than in the same seven-month period of 2024."

Separate data showed UK retail was weaker than expected last month.

Retail sales fell 1.1% in October from September, the ONS said. They had been expected to tread water, according to consensus cited by FXStreet. They had risen 0.7% in September.

"This was the first monthly fall since May 2025. Supermarkets, clothing, and mail order retailers fell in October 2025, which some retailers attributed to consumers delaying their spending in the lead up to Black Friday," the ONS added.

On-year, retail sales climbed 0.2% in October, though much loftier growth of 1.5% was forecast. Annual growth was 1.0% in September.