Poste Italiane, Barclays raises target price to €19.20: solid Q3 results expected

The British bank maintains its "equal weight" rating and expects solid performance from Poste, despite a slight slowdown in interest margins. Focus also on the strategic partnership with TIM.

Barclays has revised upward its target price for Poste Italiane, increasing it to €19.20 per share, a 7% rise from the previous €18 target. Despite the adjustment, the British bank has reaffirmed its "equal weight" recommendation, indicating a neutral stance on the stock.

According to a recent report, third-quarter results—due to be published on November 13—are expected to confirm the positive trends observed in the first half of the year, though with a slight slowdown in the net interest margin. This is mainly attributed to the bond refixing in September, whose impact is expected to be even more pronounced in the fourth quarter, already reflected in current market forecasts.

Barclays anticipates a net profit of €578 million and EBIT of €819 million for the July–September period, a 4% year-on-year increase. For the full year, the bank’s forecasts are slightly above the company’s latest guidance, with net income expected at €2.27 billion, compared to €2.2 billion projected by Poste in July.

Key topics likely to emerge during the upcoming earnings call include: trends in customer savings and investment flows, the impact of lower interest rates on financial and insurance revenues, and potential qualitative updates on the strategic partnership with Telecom Italia (TIM). However, detailed operational updates may not arrive until after the Board of Directors is renewed in April 2026.

In short, Barclays remains confident in Poste Italiane’s resilient business model, while maintaining a cautious view over the short term.