Moody's affirms UK credit rating and outlook before budget

Moody's late Friday affirmed the UK's Aa3 credit rating and 'stable' outlook ahead of next week's budget, noting "balanced risks to the economic and fiscal outlook".

The UK has "significant" strengths, Moody's said, including its "wealthy, diversified economy as well as a strong institutional framework".

"The government's commitment to reduce the large budget deficit and stabilize the public debt ratio over the coming years also supports the rating. The rating affirmation incorporates our expectation of fiscal measures consistent with the government-defined fiscal rules in the upcoming 2026 budget due to be presented on 26 November, which will help to keep the cost of debt moderate," Moody's added.

However, the rating agency's assessment reflects its expectation of "moderate economic growth" ahead and only a "gradual reduction" in the deficit.

"[This] will result in a continued increase in the general government debt from around 103% of GDP in 2025 to just below 107% by the end of the decade," Moody's continued.

"The stable outlook reflects broadly balanced risks to the economic and fiscal outlook, which are the key drivers for the UK's sovereign rating. Public investment and reforms to the land use and permitting system (that currently restricts housebuilding and acts as impediment to labour mobility and stronger productivity growth) could yield stronger economic outcomes than we currently assume, with positive consequences for fiscal and debt prospects."