Markets regain momentum as anticipation grows for a Fed rate cut

After a turbulent week, global stock markets are rising again, driven by new openness on the U.S. monetary-policy front and signs of resilience from the Asian economy, while Bitcoin remains under pressure.

World markets are starting the week with renewed optimism, buoyed by the increased likelihood of an interest-rate cut by the Federal Reserve as early as December. S&P 500 futures are up 0.5%, extending Friday’s rebound, while Asia is following suit: the MSCI index for the region gains 0.6%, and Hong Kong stands out thanks to Alibaba’s 4.7% jump, supported by the success of its artificial-intelligence app, which has already surpassed 10 million downloads.

The more relaxed market mood reflects comments by New York Fed President John Williams, who explicitly reopened the door to near-term monetary easing. After weeks of uncertainty, traders now price in more than a 60% chance of a December rate cut, although divisions remain within the central bank: Boston Fed President Susan Collins has not yet indicated her policy stance.

On the macro front, forecasts remain mixed: Goldman Sachs anticipates three cuts by June, while JPMorgan considers it more likely that any intervention will begin only in January, given the limited amount of data available before the December meeting.

The cryptocurrency outlook is more uncertain, with Bitcoin continuing to fluctuate after last month’s heavy selloff and remaining near $87,000. Traders are watching the key support level at $85,200 with caution.

In Europe, attention is focused on fiscal challenges: France faces renewed tensions over its 2026 budget, while the United Kingdom is preparing measures to contain discontent over forthcoming tax increases. Italy is more upbeat, having secured its first upgrade from Moody’s in more than two decades.

On the geopolitical front, tensions between China and Japan remain high, while the United States and Ukraine are making progress in peace negotiations, though without a defined deadline.

Andrea Pelucchi