Italy’s foreign trade contracts in May amid weak global demand

According to preliminary estimates by Istat, Italy’s exports and imports both declined in May 2025, with a sharper contraction in imports (-4.1%) than in exports (-2.3%) on a monthly basis. The export drop affected both EU markets (-1.7%) and non-EU markets (-3.1%).

In the March–May 2025 quarter, exports fell by 1.2%, and imports declined by 0.7% compared to the previous three-month period.

On a year-over-year basis, exports fell by 1.9% in value and 4.3% in volume. The annual drop is driven by a 4.6% decline in non-EU exports, only partially offset by a 0.7% increase in EU-bound exports. Imports also declined by 1.7% in value and 2.4% in volume, with a stronger contraction in non-EU imports (-3.4%) than from EU partners (-0.4%).

The sectors contributing most to the export downturn were:

1. Sporting goods, games, musical instruments, jewelry, medical devices, and other n.e.c. products (-15.1%)
2. Machinery and equipment n.e.c. (-4.1%)
3. Computers, electronic and optical devices (-15.9%)

Only a few sectors showed annual growth:

1. Pharmaceuticals, chemical-medical, and botanical products (+39.0%)
2. Food, beverages, and tobacco (+3.5%)

In terms of trading partners, the largest negative contributions came from:

1. Turkey (-22.5%)
2. China (-22.6%)
3. UK (-7.4%)
4. Netherlands (-8.4%)

On the other hand, exports increased to:

1. Spain (+15.6%)
2. Switzerland (+9.2%)
3. United States (+2.6%)

Over the January–May 2025 period, exports rose by 1.6% year-on-year, primarily driven by:

1. Pharmaceuticals, chemical-medical, and botanical products (+38.8%)
2. Food, beverages, and tobacco (+5.0%)
3. Transport equipment (excluding motor vehicles) (+7.3%)
4. Basic metals and fabricated metal products (excluding machinery) (+4.1%)

Declines were seen in other sectors, especially:

1. Refined petroleum products (-26.1%)
2. Motor vehicles (-11.7%)

The trade balance in May stood at +€6.16 billion, slightly below the €6.38 billion surplus of May 2024, but well above April’s €2.25 billion and beating market expectations of €2.87 billion. The energy deficit narrowed to -€3.46 billion from -€4.02 billion a year earlier, while the non-energy surplus declined to €9.62 billion from €10.40 billion.

Import prices dropped by 1.4% month-on-month and 3.0% year-on-year, accelerating from a -1.5% annual decline in April.