Italy might be heavily impacted by 25% U.S. tariffs

Italy has long been one of the main suppliers to Iran. Consequently, considering the possible 25% tariffs that Trump might impose on any country with economic ties to Iran, Italy could face significant consequences. In 2024, Italian exports to Iran totaled approximately €528 million, with machinery and industrial equipment alone accounting for about half of this value. These high-value sectors would likely be most affected, as tariffs could reduce competitiveness and potentially lower export revenues by €130–€140 million.

Other key exports—including chemicals, pharmaceuticals, electronics, and metals—could also see reduced demand. Overall, Italian manufacturers might experience lost contracts and decreased production, and total bilateral trade, which has already declined from €5.1 billion in 2017 to around €713 million in 2024, could contract further, highlighting the need for market diversification or strategic adjustments.

With President Donald Trump’s announcement of 25% tariffs on all countries that continue to trade with Iran, Italy could face a challenging situation: if Rome maintains or increases its commercial ties with Tehran, Italian exports to the United States could be heavily taxed. This measure could result in higher costs for Italian companies exporting to the U.S. (if also linked to trade with Iran) and could create political and economic pressure to reduce exchanges with Tehran, potentially hurting Italian sales and increasing the risk of trade retaliation.

Benedetta Zimone