Inflation steady in September: transport prices down, energy costs up

Istat data shows annual inflation holding at 1.6%. Food and transport prices slow, but energy costs rise again.

Inflation in Italy remained stable in September. According to the latest figures from Istat, the national consumer price index (NIC), excluding tobacco, fell by 0.2% on a monthly basis, while the annual rate held steady at +1.6%, the same as in August.

However, this overall stability hides contrasting trends among different spending categories. Prices for transport services slowed to +2.4% year-on-year (down from +3.5%), and fresh food such as fruit and vegetables also saw a slowdown (+4.8% compared to +5.6%). In contrast, energy costs are on the rise again: regulated energy prices jumped by 13.9% (up from +12.9%), and while unregulated energy remains cheaper than last year, the decline is easing (-5.2% from -6.3%).

Core inflation – which excludes energy and fresh food – edged down from +2.1% to +2.0%. Inflation excluding only energy goods also slowed, from +2.3% to +2.1%.

Looking more closely, goods prices remained stable at +0.6% year-on-year, while services inflation slightly eased from +2.7% to +2.6%. The “shopping basket” – which includes food, household and personal care products – decelerated from +3.4% to +3.1%. On the other hand, frequently purchased items such as bread, milk, and fuel saw inflation accelerate to +2.6% (from +2.3%).

Month-on-month, the overall price decline was mainly driven by lower transport service prices (-3.3%) and processed foods (-0.5%), partially offset by a slight rise in fresh food prices (+0.6%).

Looking ahead to 2025, the so-called “acquired inflation” – the rate already built into the system based on data so far – stands at +1.7% for the general index and +2.0% for core inflation.

Finally, the FOI index (used to adjust rents and pensions) rose by 1.4% year-on-year. The harmonised index (HICP), which includes seasonal sales, increased by 1.8% compared to September 2024, partly due to the end of summer discounts. Price increases were slightly milder for low-spending households (+1.7%) compared to high-spending ones (+1.8%).