IEA warns oil demand could rise until 2050, threatening climate goals

The International Energy Agency’s latest World Energy Outlook projects global oil demand may reach 113 million barrels per day by 2050, up 13% from 2024, signaling continued reliance on fossil fuels despite climate risks.

The IEA’s Current Policy Scenario (CPS) paints a cautious picture of the global energy transition, assuming slower adoption of renewable technologies and limited efficiency gains for internal combustion engines after 2035. While electric vehicle sales are projected to grow rapidly in China and the European Union, their market share in the U.S., India, and other major economies is expected to plateau at around 15%, sustaining high demand for oil.

Analysts warn that if this trend continues, global temperatures could rise by 2.9°C above pre-industrial levels by 2100, far exceeding the 1.5°C target scientists consider critical to avoid catastrophic climate impacts. The report highlights the economic implications as well: sustained reliance on fossil fuels could necessitate major investments in new extraction and refining capacity, keeping oil central to the global economy.

Political and policy factors play a major role in the outlook. Energy security concerns, particularly following the 2022 energy price shocks linked to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and past policy reversals in the U.S., including withdrawal from the Paris Climate Agreement, have slowed the shift toward cleaner energy. Despite these challenges, experts stress that accelerating the adoption of low-carbon technologies remains an economic and environmental imperative, with global investments in clean energy projected to reach $2.2 trillion in 2025.

World leaders and scientists preparing for the COP30 climate summit in Belém, Brazil, are expected to scrutinize these sobering projections, which underscore the tension between economic reliance on fossil fuels and the urgent need to mitigate climate change.