Flash data sees UK private sector growth accelerate in October

UK business activity growth sped up in October, as manufacturing improved for the first time in a year, according to flash estimates published by S&P Global on Friday.

The flash UK purchasing managers' composite output index rose to 51.1 points, above the 50.0 no-change mark that separates growth from contraction, and ahead of FXStreet-cited consensus for a 50.6-point reading.

This momentum follows a decline in September, when composite PMI fell to 50.1 points, missing the 51-point consensus.

According to S&P Global, October saw the slowest pace of job cutting since May, while input price inflation eased to its lowest rate since November 2024.

"While easing, jobs continue to be cut amid a backdrop of business confidence that remains subdued by historical standards," noted Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence.

The manufacturing sector fell by the slowest in a year, with a flash reading of 49.6 points, up from 46.2 in September and well ahead of 46.6-point consensus.

The manufacturing output index jumped to 51.2 points from 45.7 the previous month, marking a 13-month high. However, a decline in export sales persisted, at what Williams described as "a worryingly steep rate, in part due to the global trade disruptions caused by US tariff policy."

Output growth remained slow in the service sector due to customer hesitancy ahead of the delayed autumn budget, though the overall services PMI grew to 51.1 points, up from 50.8 in September and slightly above the 51-point consensus.

Business sentiment improved though firms still raised concerns about political volatility and the UK's economic outlook.

According to Williamson, the PMI improvement "remains consistent with only sluggish GDP growth."

"Companies are clearly treading cautiously in terms of spending, investment and hiring ahead of the upcoming budget, the outcome of which has the potential to once again sway the business mood in the months ahead."

Nonetheless, Williamson added: "October’s flash UK PMI survey brings hope that September was a low point for the economy from which business conditions are starting to improve."

The UK PMI features a panel of 650 manufacturers and 650 service providers, with responses collected between October 9 and October 22. Final manufacturing data will be released November 3, while services and composite data are due November 5.