Brent trades near 95.51 as IEA sees oil market returning to surplus

The global oil market is set to return to surplus in the final quarter of this year, the International Energy Agency said on Friday, 13 November 2026. Brent crude stood at 95.51 in morning trading, down 0.32%.

What happened

The agency said the surplus would be the first since the outbreak of the Iran war. It named the recovery of exports from the Gulf as the key factor behind the shift.

Brent was at 95.51, a fall of 0.31 from the previous close of 95.82. The move is small, and the benchmark remains close to its latest settled level.

Separately, euro area data were released at 10:00 UTC. Employment rose 0.1% quarter on quarter in the third quarter, against a 0.2% estimate and after 0.1% in the previous quarter. On a yearly basis, employment grew 0.4%, against a 0.4% estimate, after 0.5% previously.

Why it matters

A move from deficit to surplus changes the balance of the oil market. For months, supply disruption linked to the conflict in Iran has shaped the debate on energy prices. The agency's assessment suggests that physical supply is now recovering as Gulf producers ship more crude.

Oil prices feed directly into inflation, and so into the monetary policy choices of central banks. Energy-importing economies such as those in the euro area are especially sensitive to such shifts.

The employment figures add a second angle. Job growth in the euro area slowed on the yearly measure, from 0.5% to 0.4%, while the quarterly rate held at 0.1%. The labor market is still expanding, but at a measured pace.

For investors, the main point is that the supply picture and the demand-side data are now moving in the same context of slower pressure. This is an observation on the data, not a view on prices.

What to watch next

The next test is whether Gulf exports keep recovering through the final quarter, as the agency expects. Any new sign on shipment volumes would show if the surplus is taking shape.

Brent will also reflect how traders weigh this assessment against the geopolitical backdrop tied to the Iran war. The agency's statement is an expectation, not a certainty, and it depends on the export recovery continuing.

On the macro side, further euro area labor and growth data will show whether the slowdown in yearly job creation continues. Together with energy costs, these figures will inform the outlook for inflation and policy in the region.