Brent climbs above $90
Oil prices jumped sharply on Monday, with Brent crude rising above $90 per barrel for the first time in over a month. The rally was driven by worsening military tensions between the United States and Iran, which continue to threaten the security of one of the world's most important energy corridors.
Brent gained around 3.1% to $90.87 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose 2.85% to $84.84 per barrel. Both benchmarks had already posted their strongest weekly gains in months, reflecting growing concerns among investors.
Military escalation intensifies
The price surge followed another escalation over the weekend, with the United States carrying out its ninth consecutive night of strikes against Iranian targets. Iran, meanwhile, continued launching attacks against U.S. interests and regional allies.
Kuwait and Bahrain also reported additional Iranian strikes, highlighting the increasingly regional nature of the conflict.
Analysts warn that the absence of any signs of de-escalation is raising the risk of a prolonged conflict capable of disrupting global energy supplies.
Strait of Hormuz remains at the center of the crisis
The Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly one-fifth of global oil trade normally passes, remains the focal point of market concerns.
Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps claimed that two oil tankers exploded and became disabled while attempting to navigate what Tehran described as an unsafe southern route through the strait. According to Iran, the vessels had been encouraged by the U.S. Navy to use that passage.
Reuters could not independently verify the incident, but the claims have further increased uncertainty surrounding commercial shipping in the region.
Both Washington and Tehran have intensified pressure on maritime traffic, with the United States enforcing a naval blockade of Iranian ports while Iran says it is targeting vessels it considers to be violating its navigation rules.
Shipping traffic declines
Shipping data already show the impact of the crisis.
According to LSEG, only four vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday, compared with eight the previous day. At least three oil product tankers and one very large crude carrier also entered the strait to load cargo.
Meanwhile, the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) reported a vessel on fire northwest of Kumzar, Oman, adding to concerns over maritime security.
Analysts warn of further market disruptions
Major financial institutions believe energy markets may still be underestimating the risks.
ING analysts said that Brent's move above $90 reflects the continued escalation between Washington and Tehran and warned that, unless tensions ease, the Gulf could once again experience widespread attacks.
Barclays also argued that the coming weeks will determine how much oil can continue flowing from the region under the dual naval restrictions imposed by both sides. The bank believes markets remain too complacent about the potential impact on global inventories, which are significantly tighter than they were at the beginning of the conflict.
Global economic implications
A prolonged disruption to exports through the Strait of Hormuz would have consequences far beyond the Middle East.
Higher oil prices could trigger renewed inflationary pressures, slow global economic growth, and force major central banks to maintain tighter monetary policies for longer than expected.
For now, financial markets remain focused on developments in the confrontation between Washington and Tehran, knowing that any further escalation could quickly translate into additional increases in oil prices and renewed volatility across global markets.