Iran Expands Its Deterrence Strategy
Iran has instructed Yemen's Houthi movement to stand ready to shut down the Bab el-Mandeb Strait—the southern gateway to the Red Sea—if the United States launches attacks against Iran's electricity infrastructure.
According to three sources familiar with the matter, Tehran has already conveyed the directive to its Houthi allies as part of a broader strategy to increase the potential economic cost of any further American military escalation.
Although Iranian authorities have not officially confirmed the reports, the development signals that Tehran is preparing additional pressure points beyond the already closed Strait of Hormuz.
Houthis Reportedly Ready to Strike Shipping
A source close to the Houthi movement stated that the group has completed operational preparations to attack commercial shipping in the Red Sea.
According to the source, missiles and drones have already been positioned near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, particularly in areas overlooking the strategic maritime corridor from Yemen's western coastline.
The Houthis are reportedly waiting only for a final order before launching operations against commercial vessels.
Operational decisions, according to the same source, would be coordinated with members of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), who are already present in Yemen.
A Second Global Energy Chokepoint at Risk
The Bab el-Mandeb Strait is one of the world's most important maritime chokepoints, connecting the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean.
Since Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz earlier in the conflict, Saudi Arabia has redirected a substantial portion of its oil exports through pipelines leading to the Red Sea port of Yanbu.
As a result, approximately 7% of global energy supplies now transit through the Red Sea.
If both Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb were simultaneously disrupted, the Middle East's two principal oil export routes would effectively become unavailable, dramatically increasing pressure on global energy markets.
Saudi Arabia Takes the Threat Seriously
Regional sources indicate that Saudi Arabia considers the Iranian warning highly credible.
Riyadh reportedly believes that the Houthis are now coordinating far more closely with Tehran than in previous years and fears that attacks on Red Sea shipping or infrastructure could significantly affect Saudi oil exports.
Tensions have already intensified after the Houthis launched missile attacks against Saudi Arabia following accusations that the kingdom had bombed an airport under Houthi control, effectively ending a four-year ceasefire between the two sides.
Risks for Global Shipping
The Red Sea has already experienced severe disruptions during previous Houthi attacks linked to the Gaza conflict.
At that time, many international shipping companies rerouted vessels around the Cape of Good Hope, adding thousands of nautical miles to global trade routes, increasing transportation costs and delaying deliveries.
Analysts warn that renewed attacks would likely force shipping companies to adopt similar diversions once again, placing additional pressure on already strained supply chains.
Iran Seeks to Raise the Cost of Escalation
According to regional sources, Tehran's broader objective is not necessarily to close the waterway permanently but to convince Washington that any further military escalation would carry severe global economic consequences.
By threatening both the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb corridor, Iran seeks to increase uncertainty in international energy markets and strengthen its negotiating position while preserving additional military options.
One regional source summarized Tehran's thinking by stating that interrupting shipping in such narrow waterways does not require sophisticated weaponry, noting that even relatively simple attacks could significantly disrupt maritime traffic.
The "Axis of Resistance"
Iran continues to view the Houthis as a central component of its regional "Axis of Resistance," alongside Lebanon's Hezbollah and several Iraqi Shiite armed groups.
While the Houthis have not formally entered the broader regional war, the United States maintains that Iran has long provided the group with weapons, funding and military training through networks that also involve Hezbollah.
Tehran has consistently denied those accusations.