U.S.-Iran agreement boosts Wall Street, but Fed’s hawkish stance remains in focus

Wall Street rebounds after sell-off. Investors welcome easing in the Middle East and lower oil prices, while keeping a close eye on the outlook for interest rates.

Positive start for New York: S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow Jones rebound

Wall Street opened trading on June 18, 2026, in positive territory, supported by optimism surrounding the agreement reached between the United States and Iran and the resulting decline in energy prices. During the opening phase of trading:


  1. S&P 500: approximately +0.9%, around 7,485 points
  2. Nasdaq Composite: approximately +1.3%, above 26,350 points
  3. Dow Jones Industrial Average: approximately +0.7%, around 51,850 points


The rebound follows a sharp correction in the previous session, when markets reacted negatively to signals from the Federal Reserve. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh kept interest rates unchanged but indicated that additional rate hikes could be possible in the coming months to counter persistent inflationary pressures.


Technology and semiconductor stocks are leading gains in the Nasdaq, with the chip sector benefiting from the announcement of an industrial partnership between Apple and Intel aimed at expanding semiconductor production in the United States.


Geopolitics and oil: the U.S.-Iran agreement improves market sentiment

The news that has had the greatest impact on markets over the past few hours is the preliminary agreement reached between Washington and Tehran, which extends the existing ceasefire and includes measures to restore full commercial navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. The agreement immediately affected energy markets:


  1. WTI crude oil down by approximately 3%
  2. Brent crude under pressure, near its lowest levels in three months
  3. Reduced concerns over potential disruptions to global energy supplies


For investors, lower geopolitical risk could translate into reduced inflationary pressures over the coming quarters. As a result, the decline in oil prices has been interpreted as a positive development for both consumers and businesses.


However, uncertainties remain regarding the durability of the agreement, as it does not yet address sensitive issues such as Iran’s nuclear program and other unresolved matters across the Middle East.


Fed, inflation and earnings: key economic drivers under scrutiny

On the macroeconomic front, markets continue to assess the message delivered by the Federal Reserve. Key takeaways from the latest policy meeting include:


  1. Interest rates maintained within the 3.50%–3.75% range
  2. Possibility of another rate hike by the autumn
  3. Inflation still considered above the Fed’s long-term target
  4. Labor market remaining resilient


The central bank’s more restrictive tone triggered declines of more than 1% across major U.S. indices during the previous trading session. Today, however, the positive impact of improving geopolitical conditions appears to be outweighing concerns about monetary policy.


Among individual stocks, Intel is attracting significant attention after posting strong gains following its agreement with Apple, while several retail and consulting companies have come under pressure after reporting quarterly results that fell short of expectations.


Overall, Wall Street’s opening reflects a renewed appetite for risk, supported by the easing of tensions between the United States and Iran and the resulting decline in energy prices. Nevertheless, the sustainability of the rally will depend on the evolution of interest-rate expectations and the Federal Reserve’s ability to bring inflation under control without undermining economic growth.


Andrea Pelucchi