European stock markets opened in positive territory, but sentiment remains marked by persistent volatility, driven by geopolitical uncertainty and expectations for concrete diplomatic developments in the Middle East. Leading the gains is Frankfurt’s DAX, up 1.10% at 24,574 points, followed by Paris’ CAC 40 (+0.77%) and the STOXX Europe 600, which advanced 0.72%. London also traded higher, with the FTSE 100 gaining 0.59%, while in Milan the FTSE MIB rose more cautiously by 0.21% to 48,769 points. Madrid’s IBEX 35 also moved higher (+0.37%). The rebound in equity markets reflects a moderate return of risk appetite, supported by expectations of a possible diplomatic agreement “as soon as possible” on the Iranian dossier.
Market sentiment was mainly supported by comments from Donald Trump, who stated: “A Deal will be made, which will be very acceptable to the United States of America, as well as all Countries in the Middle East, and beyond. This Deal will include, importantly, NO NUCLEAR WEAPONS FOR IRAN!”.
More than Trump’s remarks themselves, however, what is keeping markets positive is the belief that Gulf countries helped prevent the attack previously anticipated by the United States. Arab nations appear increasingly unwilling to continue the conflict, a factor markets interpret as an initial sign of de-escalation. Trump’s statements therefore seem to come in a context where tensions had already partially eased. The coming hours are now seen as decisive for the possible finalization of a deal.
Despite the optimistic tone of the statements, investors continue to move cautiously. The opening figures across Europe highlight a market that remains fragile, where every political or geopolitical signal triggers rapid rotations between defensive assets and more risk-exposed stocks.
On the commodities front, oil prices fell sharply overnight following Donald Trump’s comments regarding a possible agreement with Iran. International Brent Crude futures for July delivery dropped 2.04% to $109.81 per barrel as of 5 a.m. London time, while West Texas Intermediate futures declined 1.12% to $107.44 per barrel.
The decline in oil prices reflects market expectations of a possible easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and a potential increase in global supply should an agreement with Tehran be reached. Even here, however, traders remain cautious: the reaction in commodities highlights just how sensitive markets remain to political developments, in an environment dominated by elevated volatility and rapid swings in energy prices.
The prevailing impression among investors is that markets are pricing in the hope of an agreement more than concrete certainty. For this reason, volatility remains elevated: equities are reacting positively to prospects of de-escalation, but still maintain a nervous structure, aware that any delays or renewed tensions could quickly reverse sentiment.