Asian markets fall as Iran tensions and oil above $100 weigh on sentiment

Negative close for Asian markets

Asian stock markets ended the trading session on April 13, 2026, in negative territory, weighed down by a deterioration in the international geopolitical environment and the return of tensions on the energy front. The sharpest declines were recorded in markets more exposed to global dynamics and energy imports, while mainland China showed relative resilience.

In detail, the main indices closed the day with the following performances:

1. Nikkei 225 (Tokyo): 56,521 points, -0.71%
2. Hang Seng (Hong Kong): 25,664 points, -0.89%
3. Shanghai Composite (China): 3,979 points, -0.17%
4. Kospi (Seoul): down -1 / -1.2%

The overall picture highlights a session marked by caution, with widespread selling particularly in cyclical sectors and in stocks most sensitive to global trade trends. Tokyo and Seoul, historically more vulnerable to external shocks and rising energy costs, recorded the worst performances, while Shanghai limited its losses thanks in part to a more controlled domestic environment. In Hong Kong, the decline of the Hang Seng partly reflects weakness in the technology sector and in companies linked to international trade, in a context of growing risk aversion among global investors.

Negative sentiment was further amplified by movements in U.S. futures, which pointed to a weak start for Wall Street, reinforcing the cautious mood already present across Asian markets during the early hours of trading.

Geopolitics and oil: the key drivers of the session

The main factor behind the weakness of Asian equities was the worsening geopolitical backdrop in the Middle East. In particular, the collapse of negotiations between the United States and Iran reignited fears of an escalation in the conflict, triggering a renewed wave of risk aversion across global financial markets.

Expectations for a possible diplomatic de-escalation were abruptly dashed, bringing investors’ attention back to the risk of a prolonged conflict and its implications for the global economy. This was compounded by the prospect of more aggressive measures by the United States, including actions aimed at limiting Iranian exports.

Particularly significant are concerns surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic chokepoint for global oil flows. Approximately one-fifth of the world’s oil supply transits through this area, and any disruption or restriction represents a potential shock to energy markets.

In this context, oil prices surged, with Brent crude climbing back above the psychological threshold of $100 per barrel. This marked a significant increase, in the range of 6–8%, which immediately influenced global macroeconomic expectations.

The rise in energy costs has a dual impact:

1. Inflationary pressures, which could delay monetary easing by central banks
2. Compression of corporate margins, especially in energy-intensive sectors
3. Penalization of importing countries, such as Japan and South Korea

These elements pushed investors toward more defensive assets, reducing exposure to equity markets and particularly to stocks most sensitive to the economic cycle.

Sector impact and short-term outlook

At the sector level, the session showed a clear rotation toward defensive industries, while cyclical sectors came under the heaviest selling pressure. Among the most affected were:

1. Transportation and airlines, heavily exposed to fuel costs
2. Logistics and shipping, impacted by rising operating costs and uncertainty over trade routes
3. Technology, particularly in Hong Kong, where the sector remains sensitive to global sentiment

The energy sector, by contrast, benefited from the rise in crude prices, although this was not enough to offset widespread losses in other sectors. Looking ahead, investors remain focused on two key variables: the evolution of the geopolitical crisis and the trajectory of energy prices. Both factors are expected to continue exerting a significant influence on market direction. In particular, a further escalation in Middle East tensions could trigger additional increases in oil prices, with important consequences for global inflation and monetary policy. Conversely, signs of de-escalation could support a recovery in sentiment and a rebound in equity markets.

Meanwhile, China’s relative resilience stands out as a notable element. The domestic market appears to benefit from a context that is more insulated from global dynamics, also supported by economic policies aimed at sustaining internal growth. However, the overall picture remains characterized by high uncertainty. The combination of geopolitical risks, commodity price volatility, and fragility in the global economic cycle suggests that markets may continue to move erratically in the coming weeks.

In summary, the April 13 session confirms that, at this stage, exogenous factors are the primary drivers of market movements. More than economic fundamentals, it is geopolitical dynamics and their impact on energy markets that are shaping investor behavior, in a context that remains complex and constantly evolving.

Andrea Pelucchi