Commodities, the return of the risk premium supports metals and oil

Trading in commodity markets remains cautious, with investors once again favoring safe-haven assets while keeping a significant risk premium embedded in energy prices. Gold holds near its highs, around $5,190 per ounce, supported by a softer dollar and rising risk aversion. Silver is moving in the same direction, benefiting both from defensive demand and industrial prospects, albeit with higher volatility compared to the yellow metal.

The backdrop continues to be shaped by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and uncertainties surrounding international trade relations. The risk of escalation in the Gulf of Hormuz keeps energy market participants on alert, while ongoing diplomatic negotiations between Washington and Tehran make prices particularly sensitive to any new developments. In this environment, oil is consolidating recent gains: WTI fluctuates around $65–66 per barrel, while Brent remains just above $71.

On the fundamental side, the oil market stands in a delicate balance between geopolitical support and signs of ample supply. Production policies by OPEC and its broader partners remain a key driver, in a context where any build-up in U.S. inventories could cool the short-term upward momentum.

Platinum is also trading in positive territory, following the broader precious metals complex, though it remains more exposed to industrial demand dynamics and developments in the automotive sector.

In the short term, the bias remains moderately bullish for gold and silver as long as geopolitical tensions and macro uncertainty persist, also ahead of upcoming monetary policy signals from the Federal Reserve. For crude oil, the outlook appears more balanced: solid technical support levels, but a risk of profit-taking should the geopolitical premium begin to fade.

Andrea Pelucchi