Commodities today: Gold holds above $5,000 awaiting rate signals; Oil steady ahead of US-Iran nuclear talks

Overview

As of February 16, 2026, the main commodities—gold, silver, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil, and Brent oil—are exhibiting divergent trends shaped by powerful technical momentum and significant geopolitical developments. Precious metals have surged to record levels, driven by heightened global tensions and robust investor demand for safe-haven assets. In contrast, oil markets remain volatile, pressured by geopolitical events but weighed down by an anticipated supply surplus and subdued global demand.

Technical Analysis

Gold (XAU/USD)

Gold has maintained a strong bullish trend, recently breaking above $5.0K. The market is respecting both the 10- and 30-day moving averages, indicating sustained buyer dominance. Gold is currently trading around $5.02K, with support established above $4.48K. This strong technical structure suggests that continuation of the uptrend is likely if these support levels hold, though a breach below the 30-day average could trigger a deeper correction.

Silver (XAG/USD)

Silver has delivered an extraordinary performance, surging 147% in 2025 and breaking a decade-long resistance. Current price action places silver at $76.13, underpinned by a tight technical structure and strong industrial demand. The magnitude of recent gains suggests increased potential for profit-taking and short-term volatility, but the overall outlook remains bullish with projections that further advances are possible.

WTI Crude Oil (USO)

WTI Crude Oil is trading near $71.82 and the spot price is around $59.15. The commodity faces stiff resistance at $60, with sellers maintaining control as attempts to break above this level fail. Should current support erode, technical projections indicate a bearish bias with downside targets near $52.

Brent Crude Oil (BNO)

Brent Crude Oil is trading at $31.89, with the spot price close to $63.7—a level that aligns with local lows from June. Immediate resistance is found at $63.7, with secondary resistance at $65.5. Failure to sustain current support could see prices fall toward the significant psychological level of $50, echoing the lows of 2018-2019.

Geopolitical Factors

Recent months have seen escalating global tensions, which have been a primary driver behind the surge in gold and silver prices. Notably, the threat of U.S. tariffs on eight European countries has heightened uncertainty, further fueling demand for safe-haven assets. Gold has surpassed $4.7K and silver has exceeded $95, reinforcing the impact of these geopolitical events.

In oil markets, geopolitical shocks such as the U.S. military's capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in January led to initial price spikes—Brent rising above $70 and WTI above $65—but these gains have been tempered by diplomatic easing between the U.S. and Iran, which reduced fears of supply disruptions. The International Energy Agency forecasts a global oil supply surplus of 3.73 million for 2026, exerting additional downward pressure on prices.

Short-Term Outlook

Gold and Silver

Both commodities are poised to maintain their bullish momentum in the near term, provided that key support levels are not breached. The ongoing geopolitical uncertainty and strong technical setup support the prospect of further gains, although silver's dramatic ascent raises the likelihood of near-term profit-taking and increased volatility.

WTI and Brent Oil

Oil is expected to face continued downward pressure, with technical indicators suggesting further declines if current supports are lost. The market's bearish tone is reinforced by oversupply projections and softening global demand, despite intermittent price spikes triggered by political events. If support levels are breached, both WTI and Brent could revisit multi-year lows.

Conclusion

The commodity markets as of February 16, 2026, are marked by stark divergence. Gold and silver have reached record highs, reflecting investor anxiety over global tensions and trade disputes, with the technical outlook remaining favorable as long as key supports hold. In contrast, WTI and Brent oil prices are under pressure from oversupply and weakening demand, with bearish technicals and the potential for further declines if market supports fail. Investors should remain attentive to evolving geopolitical developments and technical signals, as these will continue to drive volatility and shape short-term market direction.

Please note that the analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Users should conduct their own research.