Gold and silver continue through volatility fears; oil slides after U.S. and Iran agree to talk

Overview

Gold (GLD) and silver (SLV) are experiencing robust bullish momentum, primarily driven by heightened geopolitical tensions and a weakening U.S. dollar. In contrast, both West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil (USO) and Brent crude oil (BNO) are facing persistent bearish pressures due to oversupply concerns and subdued global demand, despite occasional price spikes triggered by geopolitical events.

Technical Analysis

Gold has recently surpassed the $5.2K mark, trading well above both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages. This technical setup confirms a sustained bullish trend, with the metal's momentum reinforced by safe-haven demand amid ongoing geopolitical risks.

Silver futures have broken through the $100 threshold, and are also positioned significantly above their key moving averages. The strong technical support signals continued upward momentum for silver, underpinned by both investor interest and industrial demand.

WTI crude oil is witnessing downward pressure, currently trading around $64. Technical indicators, including moving averages and the Relative Strength Index (RSI), highlight a bearish trend, suggesting that oil is unlikely to experience a sustained recovery in the near term.

Brent crude oil mirrors this bearish sentiment, with prices near $68. Resistance is noted around $63.7, while support is seen near $57. The technical outlook remains negative, with price recoveries likely to be short-lived.

Geopolitical Factors

Gold and silver are being propelled by escalating geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East. The heightened uncertainty has bolstered the appeal of these metals as safe-haven assets. Additionally, a weaker U.S. dollar provides further support for their upward trajectory.

For oil, the landscape is more complex. While U.S. sanctions on Russian energy companies and sporadic Middle East tensions have led to short-term price spikes, these events have not fundamentally reversed the prevailing bearish trends. Instead, persistent oversupply—projected to reach up to 4M by 2026—continues to exert downward pressure on both WTI and Brent crude prices. Subdued global demand further exacerbates this imbalance, limiting the potential for a sustained rally despite geopolitical volatility.

Short-Term Outlook

Gold and silver are expected to maintain their bullish momentum in the short term, supported by resilient safe-haven demand and strong technical indicators. This trend may continue as long as geopolitical uncertainties persist and the U.S. dollar remains weak.

WTI and Brent crude oil, by contrast, face a persistently bearish outlook. Oversupply projections and lukewarm global demand suggest that any upward movements in price are likely to be temporary. The overall trend remains downward, with technical resistance and fundamental headwinds reinforcing the negative sentiment.

Conclusion

In summary, the commodities market as of early 2026 is characterized by strength in precious metals and weakness in energy markets. Gold and silver are benefiting from a confluence of safe-haven demand and favorable technical conditions, while WTI and Brent crude oils remain under pressure from oversupply and lackluster demand. This divergence underscores the importance of closely monitoring both technical and geopolitical factors when assessing commodity market prospects in the near term.

Please note that the analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Users should conduct their own research.