China’s metal fever pushes copper prices above $14,000 per ton

Copper prices recently surged to record highs above $14,000 per metric ton, marking the strongest advance in more than 16 years. The rally has been driven largely by speculative trading, with Chinese investors dominating market flows. Hence, since early December, copper prices have risen by roughly 25 percent, even as signs point to soft near-term physical demand in China, the world’s largest consumer of the metal.

The sharp move reflects growing investor enthusiasm for copper’s long-term role in the energy transition, electrification, and the expansion of data centers and AI-driven infrastructure, all of which are highly copper-intensive. This structural demand narrative has reinforced copper’s status as a key transition metal, attracting both institutional and speculative capital.

The broader metals rally has also been supported by macroeconomic factors, including a persistently weaker US dollar, expectations of looser US monetary policy, and rising geopolitical tensions. Together, these forces have pushed investors away from bonds and currencies and toward hard assets, making dollar-denominated commodities more attractive to global buyers.

Nevertheless, analysts warn that prices may have run ahead of underlying fundamentals. Near-term demand in China remains weak, while global supply conditions appear relatively comfortable. This growing disconnect between physical market conditions and speculative investor enthusiasm increases the risk of a short-term correction should sentiment shift or buyers resist higher prices.

The latest surge builds on copper’s strong performance last year, when prices rose 42 percent, the biggest annual gain since 2009. That advance was fueled by mine disruptions and precautionary stockpiling in the United States amid concerns that potential US tariffs could be imposed on refined metal imports.

Benedetta Zimone