Gold retreats with key U.S. jobs report, Oil advances on falling inventories and focus on Venezuela

Overview

As of early 2026, the global commodities market is characterized by sharply divergent sectoral trends and heightened volatility. Energy commodities—specifically West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil (CLUSD) and Brent oil (BRNUSD)—are contending with persistent oversupply and subdued demand, reflected in sustained price declines and a bearish technical structure. In contrast, precious metals such as Gold (XAU/USD) and Silver (XAG/USD) continue to demonstrate robust performance, buoyed by safe-haven demand, central bank accumulation, and strong industrial usage, particularly for silver. Industrial metals like Copper (HGUSD) and Platinum (PLUSD) are maintaining upward momentum, supported by long-term structural demand and supply constraints. Geopolitical events, macroeconomic policies, and technical indicators are decisively shaping short-term price action and sentiment across these markets.

Technical Analysis

WTI Crude Oil (CLUSD)

WTI crude oil is currently trading at $56.55 per barrel, near its yearly low of $54.98 and significantly below its yearly high of $80.77. The price remains under both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages—$58.27 and $62.27—confirming a bearish technical structure. The Relative Strength Index has been in the 28–34 range, indicating oversold conditions and highlighting the potential for a short-term technical rebound if support is maintained. However, the prevailing micro-trend is flat, reflecting subdued momentum and ongoing market indecision.

Brent Crude Oil (BRNUSD)

Brent crude oil is quoted around $61.4 per barrel, having declined approximately 17% year-on-year. The asset remains below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, with immediate resistance observed at $63.7 and major resistance zones at $70 and $72. The micro-trend is flat, signaling ongoing consolidation with downside risk if support levels fail to hold.

Gold (XAU/USD)

Gold is trading at $4.43K per ounce, near all-time highs and well above its 50-day $4.27K and 200-day $3.74K. The asset achieved over 50 all-time highs during 2025, returning more than 60%, driven by strong central bank demand and a weaker U.S. dollar. The RSI hovers near 70, indicating an overbought market, while the micro-trend is classified as STRONG_LONG, suggesting the short-term path of least resistance remains upward, though intermittent consolidation may occur.

Silver (XAG/USD)

Silver is trading at $75.69 per ounce, having more than doubled year-to-date and recently setting a record high near $83.94. The price stands significantly above its 50-day $62.25 and 200-day $46.11, confirming robust technical performance. The micro-trend is flat, indicating a likely consolidation phase after significant gains, but the broader bias remains positive amid persistent investor and industrial demand.

Copper (HGUSD)

Copper is currently trading at $5.85, with recent historical prices near all-time highs in the previous week. The asset remains above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages—$5.26 and $4.93—supported by electrification-driven demand and constrained mine supply. The technical outlook is constructive, with potential for further consolidation in 2026 as the market digests recent gains.

Platinum (PLUSD)

Platinum is trading at $2.21K per ounce, after rallying 84% in 2025. The price is well above its 50-day $1.77K and 200-day $1.4K. The short-term technical outlook remains bullish, with projections for potential highs near $1.9K in 2026, fueled by severe supply shortages and strong industrial demand.

Geopolitical and Market Factors

Geopolitical developments are exerting a decisive influence across all major commodities. For oil, the ceasefire in Gaza and OPEC+’s restraint on output have reduced the geopolitical risk premium, contributing to recent price declines and a more stable near-term outlook. However, the market remains highly sensitive to renewed shocks, such as Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil infrastructure and U.S. intervention in Venezuela, which have caused temporary price spikes but failed to alter the underlying bearish supply narrative. OPEC+ has paused planned production increases for early 2026, while the International Energy Agency warns of a potential oil supply glut of up to 4M by 2026.

Trade tensions between the U.S. and China—including new tariffs and port fees—continue to amplify volatility and suppress global oil demand expectations. Meanwhile, central bank accumulation, robust ETF inflows, and expectations of U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts have intensified safe-haven demand for gold and silver. The weakening U.S. dollar and ongoing inflation concerns further support precious metals, while silver’s industrial demand from the renewable energy and electronics sectors is a key factor in its outperformance. For industrial metals, copper remains a strategic beneficiary of the global energy transition, while platinum’s rally is underpinned by severe supply shortages and renewed investment interest.

Short-Term Outlook

WTI and Brent crude oil are in technically oversold territory, suggesting the potential for a short-term rebound if current support levels are maintained. Nevertheless, the broader outlook for oil remains cautious due to fundamental oversupply risks and subdued demand, with downside risk prevailing unless new geopolitical disruptions or significant OPEC+ policy shifts occur. Gold is anticipated to remain well supported in the short term, with persistent global instability and robust safe-haven flows sustaining elevated prices. Silver’s outlook is similarly constructive, benefiting from both investment and industrial demand. Copper is expected to consolidate, supported by structural demand growth, while platinum’s outlook remains bullish on the back of tight supply and strong industrial usage.

Latest News and Events

Recent market headlines highlight the acute sensitivity of commodities to geopolitical and macroeconomic developments:

1. Oil prices have responded to U.S. sanctions on Venezuela, Ukrainian strikes on Russian infrastructure, and the Middle East ceasefire, with short-lived spikes followed by retracement as oversupply concerns dominate.
2. Gold and silver have notched record highs in 2025 amid escalating macroeconomic and geopolitical risks, with central bank accumulation and potential U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts as key drivers.
3. Platinum’s rally has been fueled by severe supply shortages and renewed ETF inflows, while copper continues to benefit from electrification trends and constrained mine supply.

For further details, see:

1. Goldman sees gold at $4,900 by December 2026, projects oil price decline
2. Oil set to close lower for second straight week
3. Gold rises to record as US-China trade woes escalate; silver scales all-time peak

Conclusion

In summary, the main commodities are exhibiting sharply divergent short-term trends. WTI and Brent crude oil remain under pressure from oversupply and lackluster demand, with technical and geopolitical factors reinforcing a cautious outlook. In contrast, gold and silver continue to benefit from robust safe-haven demand, supportive technical momentum, and favorable macroeconomic and geopolitical contexts. Industrial metals—particularly copper and platinum—retain constructive to bullish outlooks, supported by structural demand growth and supply constraints. The commodities market remains highly responsive to ongoing developments in geopolitics, central bank policy, and macroeconomic data, necessitating vigilant monitoring for effective positioning in the near term.

Please note that the analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Users should conduct their own research.