Gold edges slightly higher, while natural gas and cocoa shine; oil and other commodities show little movement

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Overview

The global commodities market at the end of October 2025 is characterized by heightened volatility, diverging technical trends, and strong macroeconomic and geopolitical influences. WTI crude oil (CLUSD), Brent crude oil (BZUSD), gold (XAU/USD), natural gas (NGUSD), and cocoa (CCUSD) are all shaped by a confluence of factors including oversupply, demand uncertainty, inflationary pressures, and climate-driven disruptions. The interplay of technical indicators and significant news events continues to impact short-term price action and investor sentiment across these key asset classes.


Technical Analysis

WTI Crude Oil (CLUSD) WTI crude oil is currently trading at 60.1 per barrel, reflecting a recent decline and hovering near five-month lows. The price remains below both the 50-day moving average 61.6608 and the 200-day moving average 64.15725, confirming a bearish technical bias. Relative Strength Index (RSI) readings in the 28–34 range indicate oversold conditions, pointing to the potential for a technical rebound if support at 59.70 holds. However, the prevailing micro-trend is flat, reflecting subdued momentum and persistent downside risk.


Brent Crude Oil (BZUSD) Brent crude oil is quoted at 64.64 per barrel, down over 25% from early-year highs and trading below key technical support zones. The price remains under its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, with RSI suggesting continued oversold conditions. The break below the 65.25–61.76 zone signals further downside targets at 55.00–53.00, while resistance is capped at 67.39–68.46.


Gold (XAU/USD) Gold has surged to 4016.445 per ounce, establishing new record highs and maintaining a strong bullish momentum. The price is well above its 50-day 3880.9879 and 200-day 3432.83872 moving averages, reflecting ongoing upward momentum. The RSI is near 70, indicating overbought conditions that could prompt consolidation, yet the prevailing trend is classified as STRONG_LONG, suggesting continued upside in the short term.


Natural Gas (NGUSD) Natural gas is trading at 4.108 per MMBtu, up significantly in recent sessions. The price is above both its 50-day 3.11902 and 200-day 3.44139 moving averages, confirming a bullish technical setup. Technical signals and volume trends point to a strong buy, supported by elevated demand and positive momentum.


Cocoa (CCUSD) Cocoa prices are at 6322.5 per ton, having experienced extreme volatility in 2024 and 2025. The current price remains below its 50-day 6857.9 and 200-day 8507.845 averages but is still significantly elevated compared to historical norms. The market is in backwardation, reflecting tightness in the physical market despite recent improvement in inventories.


Geopolitical and Market Factors

Oil markets have been directly impacted by several interlocking global forces. The recent ceasefire in the Middle East has sharply reduced the geopolitical risk premium, while OPEC+ continues a cautious production policy, having raised output only modestly by 137000 for November. However, global supply remains robust, with U.S. production at record levels—13.6—and Saudi crude exports at a six-month high. A stronger U.S. dollar, weak Chinese economic data, and Western sanctions on Russian exports have further influenced the bearish sentiment and contributed to a third consecutive monthly decline in oil prices.

Gold continues to benefit from persistent geopolitical and economic instability, including government shutdown risks in the U.S., instability in Japan and France, and expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. Central bank accumulation and robust ETF inflows have further fueled gold’s ascent, reinforcing its role as a safe haven.

Natural gas prices have been driven by higher-than-average U.S. temperatures, causing increased demand for electricity. Technical signals and short-term fundamentals remain favorable.

Cocoa markets remain highly sensitive to climate change and weather volatility in West Africa. While inventories have improved from historic lows, ongoing supply constraints and backwardation in the futures curve indicate continued market tension.


Short-Term Outlook

WTI and Brent crude oil are both in technically oversold territory, suggesting the possibility of a short-term technical rebound if support levels hold. However, the broader outlook remains cautious due to ongoing oversupply, subdued demand, and the potential for renewed volatility should geopolitical risks re-emerge or OPEC+ policy shifts unexpectedly.

Gold is expected to remain well supported in the near term, with strong safe-haven flows and macroeconomic anxiety likely to sustain elevated prices, despite technically overbought conditions. Natural gas retains a bullish short-term outlook, underpinned by robust demand and strong technical signals. Cocoa is likely to experience continued volatility, with the potential for stabilization if inventory improvements persist, though climate and supply risks remain elevated.


Latest News and Events

Recent headlines reinforce the influence of macroeconomic and geopolitical developments:

  1. Oil is on track for a third consecutive monthly decline, with ongoing concerns about oversupply and weak demand, exacerbated by a strong U.S. dollar and weak Chinese factory data.
  2. Oil heads for third monthly decline as strong dollar, ample supply weigh
  3. OPEC+ has implemented a modest production increase, and Saudi Arabia’s exports are at multi-month highs, while U.S. output remains at record levels.
  4. Gold has reached record highs, supported by safe-haven flows, central bank accumulation, and inflationary pressures.
  5. Gold rises to record as US-China trade woes escalate; silver scales all-time peak (Reuters)
  6. Natural gas prices are surging due to weather-driven demand spikes.
  7. Cocoa markets remain volatile, with ongoing climate-related supply risks despite some recovery in inventories.


Conclusion

In summary, the main commodity markets are experiencing divergent trends as technical setups, geopolitical factors, and macroeconomic conditions interact. WTI and Brent oil remain under pressure from oversupply, weak demand, and a strong dollar, though oversold conditions could prompt a short-term rebound. Gold stands out as a robust performer, buoyed by persistent safe-haven demand and central bank buying, even as technical signals point to overbought territory. Natural gas is seeing renewed strength on weather-driven demand, and cocoa remains volatile, with climate and supply risks still prominent. Investors should closely monitor technical indicators, economic data, and geopolitical events, as these will continue to drive rapid changes in commodity prices in the weeks ahead.


Please note that the analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Users should conduct their own research.