Oil fluctuates as Israel and Hamas reach a deal

Brent crude oil futures hovered above $66 per barrel on Thursday, fluctuating between small gains and losses as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East eased and traders weighed mixed supply signals.

President Donald Trump announced that Israel and Hamas had agreed to the first phase of a peace plan, including the release of hostages held in Gaza—a breakthrough in US- and Qatari-mediated talks aimed at ending the two-year conflict.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he would convene the government to approve the ceasefire deal, while Trump added that he may soon visit Israel, signaling a potential turning point in the region’s stability.

Still, some analysts cautioned that the agreement may take time to implement, with risks of renewed flare-ups remaining high. The easing of tensions tempered the geopolitical risk premium that had recently supported prices, even as underlying fundamentals remain finely balanced.

On the supply side, data from the US Energy Information Administration showed that crude inventories rose for a second straight week but remained close to seasonal lows, underscoring resilient domestic demand.

Stockpiles at the Cushing, Oklahoma, delivery hub and refined product inventories both declined, while total petroleum products supplied—a key measure of fuel consumption—climbed to 21.99 million barrels per day, the highest since December 2022.

Looking ahead, traders are turning their attention to the upcoming OPEC+ meeting, where discussions are expected to focus on production policy for the remainder of the year.

Meanwhile, softer US inflation data and growing expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut next month have also helped limit downside pressure, as a weaker dollar tends to boost the appeal of commodities priced in the greenback.