European natural gas prices climbed toward €36 per megawatt-hour, the highest level in over six weeks, as a combination of cooler-than-expected weather and escalating geopolitical uncertainty intensified market pressures.
TTF prices rise to over six-week high
A persistent cold pattern is driving below-normal temperatures across much of continental Europe, with forecasts suggesting the chill will linger through at least mid-next week. This is pushing up gas demand, particularly in energy-intensive regions such as northwest Europe, where heating and industrial needs are especially sensitive to temperature swings.
Compounding the situation, EU gas storage levels remain uncomfortably low, standing at just 43.7% capacity compared to 65.8% at this time last year. In response to the tighter market backdrop and following an unusually harsh winter, EU lawmakers recently voted to revise down the November 1 storage target to 83% from 90%, signaling an acknowledgment of the current supply constraints and the challenges of replenishing reserves ahead of the next heating season.
Renewed tensions in Eastern Europe hit sentiment
On the geopolitical front, investors are also grappling with renewed tensions in Eastern Europe, as peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine remain at a stalemate. Hopes for progress were dampened further after a proposed direct meeting in Istanbul between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian officials failed to materialize. Notably, neither Putin nor former US President Donald Trump—who had been rumored to possibly mediate—attended the gathering, further lowering expectations for any near-term diplomatic breakthrough. Against this backdrop of lingering conflict and fragile energy balances, the European gas market continues to face significant headwinds, keeping prices elevated as risks remain firmly skewed to the upside.
