GM earnings preview: market awaits clarity after heavy Q4 charges
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General Motors (GM) is set to report its Q1 2025 earnings before the bell on April 29, with the market closely watching for signs of operational resilience after a volatile close to 2024. Consensus estimates call for adjusted EPS of $2.63, marginally higher than the $2.62 reported in Q1 2024. While the sequential growth is modest, the more pressing question for investors is whether GM can maintain earnings momentum despite lingering headwinds from its international exposure and restructuring strategy.
The Detroit-based automaker — with a current market cap of $43.4 billion — continues to operate across four main segments: GM North America, GM International, GM Financial, and Cruise. The latter remains a wildcard after the company halted further investment in its autonomous unit, incurring $500 million in related charges last quarter. This move, alongside a $4 billion impairment on its Chinese JV interests, led to a GAAP net loss of approximately $3 billion in Q4 2024, despite 11% revenue growth to $47.7 billion and a strong adjusted EPS of $1.92, up nearly 55% year-over-year.
The key for this quarter will be whether GM can demonstrate normalized profitability and operational efficiency, particularly after such exceptional items. For full-year 2025, analysts project EPS of $11.51, up 8.6% from 2024, with a further 3% gain to $11.85 forecasted for 2026 — expectations that suggest confidence in the company’s long-term earnings power once temporary headwinds abate.
In terms of price action, GM shares have gained 4.8% over the past 12 months, lagging both the S&P 500 Index (+5.5%) and the Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLY, +7.4%). This underperformance, despite consistent earnings beats over the past four quarters, suggests the market remains sensitive to restructuring risks and capital allocation strategies — especially in non-core operations like Cruise.
Analyst sentiment remains cautiously optimistic. Out of 24 analysts, 10 rate the stock a “Strong Buy”, with one “Moderate Buy,” 10 “Hold” recommendations, and 3 “Strong Sell” calls. The average price target of $58.10 implies nearly 29% upside from current levels.
Heading into earnings, investors will be watching for management’s outlook on core margin sustainability, capital deployment discipline, and any updates on North American production efficiency. A clean quarter, free from exceptional charges, could help restore confidence in the stock’s re-rating potential. Conversely, any signs of further balance sheet risk or slower-than-expected progress on cost containment may limit upside despite strong top-line fundamentals.
The Detroit-based automaker — with a current market cap of $43.4 billion — continues to operate across four main segments: GM North America, GM International, GM Financial, and Cruise. The latter remains a wildcard after the company halted further investment in its autonomous unit, incurring $500 million in related charges last quarter. This move, alongside a $4 billion impairment on its Chinese JV interests, led to a GAAP net loss of approximately $3 billion in Q4 2024, despite 11% revenue growth to $47.7 billion and a strong adjusted EPS of $1.92, up nearly 55% year-over-year.
The key for this quarter will be whether GM can demonstrate normalized profitability and operational efficiency, particularly after such exceptional items. For full-year 2025, analysts project EPS of $11.51, up 8.6% from 2024, with a further 3% gain to $11.85 forecasted for 2026 — expectations that suggest confidence in the company’s long-term earnings power once temporary headwinds abate.
In terms of price action, GM shares have gained 4.8% over the past 12 months, lagging both the S&P 500 Index (+5.5%) and the Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLY, +7.4%). This underperformance, despite consistent earnings beats over the past four quarters, suggests the market remains sensitive to restructuring risks and capital allocation strategies — especially in non-core operations like Cruise.
Analyst sentiment remains cautiously optimistic. Out of 24 analysts, 10 rate the stock a “Strong Buy”, with one “Moderate Buy,” 10 “Hold” recommendations, and 3 “Strong Sell” calls. The average price target of $58.10 implies nearly 29% upside from current levels.
Heading into earnings, investors will be watching for management’s outlook on core margin sustainability, capital deployment discipline, and any updates on North American production efficiency. A clean quarter, free from exceptional charges, could help restore confidence in the stock’s re-rating potential. Conversely, any signs of further balance sheet risk or slower-than-expected progress on cost containment may limit upside despite strong top-line fundamentals.