European markets set for gains as defense sector leads rally

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European equity futures pointed higher on Monday, with defense stocks poised for strong gains following an agreement among European leaders to increase military spending and draft a new peace plan for Ukraine. The shift in policy is expected to drive further investment in the sector, as the European Commission signaled a potential easing of debt restrictions to facilitate higher expenditures.

Pre-market activity reflected the market's optimism, with Rheinmetall surging 15% and other key defense stocks, including BAE Systems, Leonardo, and Thales, expected to open at least 7% higher. Broader market futures also showed strength, with Euro STOXX 50 futures rising 0.4%, while Frankfurt’s DAX, London’s FTSE, and Paris’ CAC futures posted gains between 0.1% and 0.5%.

Germany could emerge as a central player in Europe’s expanded defense strategy, as reports suggest that the CDU/CSU and SPD parties—currently engaged in coalition talks—are considering establishing two substantial funds for defense and infrastructure, each potentially worth hundreds of billions of euros. This move would mark a significant shift in the region’s fiscal priorities, reinforcing Europe’s commitment to military preparedness.

Meanwhile, trade tensions remain a focal point, with new U.S. tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports set to take effect on Tuesday. Investors will be monitoring potential retaliatory measures and their broader impact on transatlantic trade relations.

As European markets open, the interplay between geopolitical developments and fiscal policies will be crucial in shaping investor sentiment. The defense sector remains in the spotlight, but broader economic trends and trade policies will influence market dynamics in the sessions ahead.