U.S. and North America: inflation and trade tariffs in focus
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Key Events:
U.S. Core PCE Inflation Data (Friday) will be the highlight of the week, offering fresh insight into the Federal Reserve’s inflation outlook. Despite recent CPI and PPI data showing strong price pressures, some analysts believe core PCE may indicate softer inflationary trends. However, markets remain convinced that the Fed will not cut rates before September.
Market Expectations:
U.S. Treasury yields could react to Conference Board consumer confidence (Tuesday), Q4 GDP second estimate (Thursday), and durable goods orders (Thursday). Higher inflation readings could push yields higher, reinforcing expectations of a hawkish Fed stance.
Trade Tariff Uncertainty:
Investors are awaiting further trade policy announcements from President Trump regarding proposed tariffs on auto, semiconductor, and pharmaceutical imports. Canada is also watching closely, as uncertainty looms over the potential impact on Canadian GDP data (Friday).
Bond Auctions:
The U.S. Treasury will auction:
$69B in 2-year notes (Monday);
$70B in 5-year notes (Tuesday);
$44B in 7-year notes (Wednesday);
U.S. Core PCE Inflation Data (Friday) will be the highlight of the week, offering fresh insight into the Federal Reserve’s inflation outlook. Despite recent CPI and PPI data showing strong price pressures, some analysts believe core PCE may indicate softer inflationary trends. However, markets remain convinced that the Fed will not cut rates before September.
Market Expectations:
U.S. Treasury yields could react to Conference Board consumer confidence (Tuesday), Q4 GDP second estimate (Thursday), and durable goods orders (Thursday). Higher inflation readings could push yields higher, reinforcing expectations of a hawkish Fed stance.
Trade Tariff Uncertainty:
Investors are awaiting further trade policy announcements from President Trump regarding proposed tariffs on auto, semiconductor, and pharmaceutical imports. Canada is also watching closely, as uncertainty looms over the potential impact on Canadian GDP data (Friday).
Bond Auctions:
The U.S. Treasury will auction:
$69B in 2-year notes (Monday);
$70B in 5-year notes (Tuesday);
$44B in 7-year notes (Wednesday);