Oil prices steady as markets await clarity on Trump’s tariff plan

Crude oil prices remain range-bound as traders assess the potential impact of U.S. tariffs on Canada and Mexico, the rise in U.S. crude stockpiles, and the upcoming OPEC+ ministerial meeting on February 3. Brent crude trades at $76.51, down 0.09%, while WTI hovers near $72.64 after hitting a yearly low. Market Drivers: Tariffs, Stockpiles, and OPEC+ Strategy Markets remain cautious as President Trump’s tariff plan targeting Canada and Mexico approaches its implementation deadline. White House officials reaffirmed Trump’s intent to impose duties unless both nations strengthen border controls against fentanyl. However, analysts suggest that the move has been largely priced in, minimizing its immediate effect on crude markets. Meanwhile, U.S. crude inventories rose by 3.46 million barrels last week, aligning with expectations. The buildup reflects lower seasonal demand following winter storms that disrupted energy consumption across key regions. On the supply side, Russia's crude exports from western ports are set to decline 8% in February due to heightened refining activity and new U.S. sanctions impacting oil flows. This reduction may provide some upside pressure on global crude benchmarks. OPEC+ Meeting in Focus: Will There Be a Response to U.S. Pressure? The February 3 OPEC+ ministerial meeting could introduce fresh volatility, as members deliberate on Trump’s push for lower oil prices and his agenda of maximizing U.S. crude output. While Saudi Arabia and Russia may address Washington’s stance, a full-scale price war remains unlikely, as aggressive production hikes could destabilize both OPEC+ nations and U.S. shale producers. BMI analysts warn that an all-out production battle could push Brent below $50, given OPEC+’s estimated 5 million barrels per day of spare capacity, which could overwhelm market demand and force U.S. shale output into decline. Technical Outlook: Brent and WTI Hold Key Support Levels Brent crude remains supported near $76, with resistance seen at $78.50. A break above this level could trigger a move toward $80. WTI finds support near $72, with a breakout above $74 needed for a bullish reversal. As markets await further policy clarity, tariff risks, U.S. inventory trends, and OPEC+ supply decisions will shape the next directional move in crude prices. --