ASML backs 2030 guide as industry outlook "remains promising"

ASML Holding NV reassured investors on Thursday by confirming its 2030 targets, helping to alleviate concerns about the company's future prospects as a supplier of equipment to semiconductor firms.

ASML backs 2030 guide as industry outlook "remains promising" The company reiterated its "potential 2030 scenarios," with expected annual revenue between EUR44 billion and EUR60 billion, and a gross margin between 56% and 60%. ASML reported revenue of EUR27.56 billion in 2023, a 30% increase from the previous year, with a gross margin of 51.3%, up from 50.5% in 2022.

Promising long-term outlook

ASML also highlighted the promising long-term outlook for the semiconductor industry, driven by semiconductors’ critical role in enabling key societal megatrends. The company sees AI as a significant growth driver, noting that AI is poised to boost productivity and innovation. This, along with growth in important end-markets, is expected to push global semiconductor sales beyond USD1 trillion by 2030, leading to an annual growth rate of approximately 9% in the semiconductor market from 2025 to 2030.

Some market are slower to recover

However, the company acknowledged that some markets are recovering more slowly than anticipated. In its third-quarter results, ASML reported net sales of EUR7.47 billion, a 12% increase from EUR6.67 billion a year earlier, and net income rose 9.7% to EUR2.08 billion. CEO Christophe Fouquet noted that, while AI shows strong potential, recovery in other market segments is more gradual than expected, particularly in Logic, where slower ramp-ups in new nodes have delayed demand for EUV lithography equipment. In Memory, capacity additions remain limited, with a focus on technology transitions supporting AI-driven demand.

Sales expected up

Looking ahead, ASML expects fourth-quarter sales between EUR8.8 billion and EUR9.2 billion, a potential 27% increase from EUR7.24 billion in the same period last year. For the full year of 2024, ASML anticipates sales of EUR28 billion, up from EUR27.56 billion in 2023. For 2025, the company projects net sales between EUR30 billion and EUR35 billion. Fouquet added, "Given recent market dynamics, we expect 2025 total net sales to fall within the lower half of the range we provided at our 2022 investor day, between EUR30 billion and EUR35 billion. Our expected gross margin will be between 51% and 53%, slightly below the range previously indicated, mainly due to delayed EUV demand."