Eurozone Inflation rises to 2.5%, exceeding ECB target

According to preliminary data published by Eurostat, inflation in the eurozone rose to 2.5% in March, well above the 2% target set by the European Central Bank (ECB). The increase is not entirely surprising, given the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East and ongoing tensions related to the energy crisis. In February, inflation stood at 1.9%, perfectly in line with the ECB’s objectives.

Previous expectations

Analysts’ forecasts were mixed: Moody’s had anticipated a larger increase, at 3%, while economists surveyed by Reuters had expected a more moderate reading of 2.6%, a figure also confirmed by the OECD. For Italy specifically, the OECD predicts an inflation rate of 2.4%, indicating more persistent price pressures compared to other European countries.

OECD Data

On the growth front, the Eurozone shows signs of weakening, with GDP projected to rise by 0.8% in 2026, while global growth is expected to remain around 2.9%. In Italy, growth is set to slow relative to earlier forecasts: the OECD estimates a GDP increase of 0.4% in 2026, down from the +0.6% forecast in December, and 0.6% in 2027. The slowdown primarily reflects a more restrictive fiscal policy and weaker domestic demand compared with other major European countries.

Fragile International context

The international framework remains fragile, with the Middle East conflict emerging as a key source of uncertainty, potentially impacting energy markets, supply chains, and price stability. In this environment, central banks and governments face the challenge of balancing growth support, inflation control, and public finance sustainability. Among the main European economies, the situation is uneven: Germany and France are expected to see moderate growth around 0.8%, while Spain continues to register stronger growth, exceeding 2%.