Trump's optimism about the economy clashes with the data: Tactic or manipulation?

A month after the escalation in the Middle East, the gap between White House statements and the collapse of the Nasdaq and gold is becoming increasingly evident.

“I thought that oil prices would rise more and that the stock market would fall more. It wasn't nearly as bad as I thought. I think they have faith in the American president and in the people sitting around this table.”

These were the statements made by the Trump administration staff following yesterday’s meeting at the White House. In official speeches, words of optimism and reassurance prevailed regarding the resilience of the American economy. However, exactly one month after the start of the escalation, the real picture looks quite different.

The trend of the stock indices

The numbers tell a less reassuring story: from February 28, 2026, to today, the S&P 500 has fallen by approximately 6.2%, while the NASDAQ Composite has recorded a negative change of 5.56%. The tech-heavy index dropped from 22,668.21 points at the end of February to around 21,408.08 today, marking an overall loss of 1,260 points in just thirty days.

The gold crisis as a safe haven

In this geopolitical phase, gold has surprised investors by failing in its classic role as a safe haven. Despite heightened tensions, the yellow metal has experienced a significant and unusual decline, falling about 16% from February 28 to today. This drop was exacerbated by the sharp strengthening of the dollar, which made gold more expensive for foreign buyers and drastically reduced global demand.

The real protagonists: oil and gas

The absolute winners over the past month have been the energy markets. Since the start of hostilities, black gold has risen by 40%, while gas has surged by 70%. Brent crude has returned to levels above $109 per barrel, levels that had not been sustained since 2022. At that time, following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, crude oil maintained a monthly average of $111.51, with peaks above $120.

Meanwhile, the gas market has broken the relative stability observed between 2024 and 2025, when prices fluctuated between €25 and €30/MWh. To see stable prices above €50/MWh, one must go back to the European energy crisis of 2022. This surge has created a profound divergence in the markets, benefiting commodity-linked stocks while weighing heavily on industrial production costs and consumer confidence.

Fake news or market strategy?

The optimism displayed by the Trump administration clashes with an economic reality characterized by high volatility and an unprecedented rise in energy prices over the past four years. While political statements aim to stabilize investor sentiment, the flight from traditional assets and the failure of gold as a safe haven highlight a climate of deep uncertainty.

The resilience of the system will now depend on diplomacy’s ability to defuse tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. Without a rapid normalization of energy flows, the risk is that the divergence between stock markets and commodity prices could evolve into a larger, structural recession.

Benedetta Zimone