US employment: the government revises its figures. 69% of jobs lost.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) should pay closer attention to the accuracy and reliability of its jobs data.

In this regard, the most recent revision initially estimated that 584,000 jobs were created in the United States in 2025. However, subsequent data showed that the actual number was far lower. Indeed, according to the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW), only 181,000 jobs were added, approximately 69% fewer than previously reported.

Such a large discrepancy raises concerns about the methodology and preliminary estimation process.

Employment figures play a crucial role in shaping public policy, guiding financial markets, and influencing business and consumer confidence. Therefore, when the numbers are significantly revised, it can undermine trust in the data and create uncertainty about the true state of the economy.

Nevertheless, wrong job estimates, especially from institutions like the Bureau of Labor Statistics—can have serious economic, political, and financial consequences. Employment data is one of the most influential indicators in the U.S. economy, so large miscalculations can create ripple effects across multiple areas.

Regarding financial markets, large errors in employment estimates can have immediate and significant consequences. Investors closely monitor data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics because it influences expectations about economic growth, corporate profits, and interest rate decisions by the Federal Reserve. If job creation is overstated, markets may rise on overly optimistic assumptions, only to correct sharply when downward revisions are released. Such surprises can increase volatility in stocks, bonds, and currency markets, undermine investor confidence, and lead to an abrupt repricing of risk across asset classes.

Benedetta Zimone