Cautious markets after U.S. break: Tech still under pressure, treasuries rise

U.S. equity futures retreated as trading resumed after Presidents’ Day, signaling that the correction in the technology sector may not yet be over. Contracts on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 moved lower, while a weak open is expected in Europe and the pound slipped following deteriorating UK labor data. Trading volumes in Asia were thin due to the Lunar New Year holiday. In a cautious environment, yields on 10-year Treasuries fell to 4.02% and the yen strengthened as a safe haven. Oil held on to gains, supported by tensions between the United States and Iran. Uncertainty surrounding artificial intelligence also weighed on markets, with the so-called “AI scare trade” fueling selling beyond the tech sector.

According to Bloomberg strategists, today’s moves should be interpreted with caution due to reduced liquidity following the holiday, though the tone remains defensive. The decline in gold and silver suggests that the wounds from late January have not fully healed. Attention now turns to remarks from Federal Reserve officials and upcoming macro data, including private employment figures and minutes from the latest meeting. Meanwhile, the debate over AI’s impact is intensifying: JPMorgan Chase is urging caution on stocks exposed to “cannibalization” risk, while other firms are building long/short baskets to exploit divergences. Corporate earnings resilience remains central, with estimated growth of around 13% supporting a constructive view on U.S. equities.

Corporate Highlights

A session rich in developments across international markets, with corporate results, M&A activity, and new challenges in the artificial intelligence sector. Drawing particular attention was BHP Group, whose shares jumped after the mining giant reported a more than 20% increase in profit for the six months ended December, supported by a sharp rise in copper prices.

On the technology front, Apple Inc. announced a launch event scheduled for March 4, fueling expectations for new devices in the coming weeks. Meanwhile, according to the Financial Times, Danaher Corp. is close to a roughly $10 billion deal to acquire Masimo Corp., a move that would strengthen its presence in medical technologies.

In Asia, Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. unveiled a major update to its flagship artificial intelligence model, intensifying competition with startups and major groups, including China’s DeepSeek. In semiconductors, Advanced Micro Devices Inc. announced a partnership with Tata Consultancy Services Ltd. to bring its latest AI data center technologies to India, directly challenging Nvidia Corp. in one of the fastest-growing markets. In the hospitality sector, Hyatt Hotels Corp. announced that Executive Chairman Tom Pritzker will step down and will not seek re-election to the board.

Key Market Moves

On the markets front, U.S. futures traded in negative territory during early European hours, with the S&P 500 down 0.4%, the Nasdaq 100 falling 0.8%, and the Dow Jones declining 0.3%. In Asia and emerging markets, MSCI indices were broadly stable. In foreign exchange markets, the dollar was unchanged, while the euro and the pound lost ground; the yen moved against the trend, strengthening. Among cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin and Ether posted modest declines. In fixed income, the yield on the 10-year Treasury fell to 4.02%, with British government bonds also lower, while the German Bund remained steady. Commodities were also weaker, with Brent crude below $69 per barrel and spot gold sharply lower.

Andrea Pelucchi