Trump seeks a big win with Xi: tariffs, Taiwan, and American soybeans at the heart of a high-stakes summit

The U.S. President is chasing a quick victory in his face-to-face meeting with Xi Jinping, but deep divides over trade, security, and geopolitics make a historic deal unlikely.

Donald Trump is back on the global stage with an ambitious goal: to extract from Chinese leader Xi Jinping a deal he can present as a political and diplomatic triumph. The meeting, scheduled for Thursday in South Korea, comes after weeks of mounting tension, economic retaliation, and tariff threats. On the table are issues that intertwine economics, technology, and geopolitics — from rare earth exports to semiconductors, from American soybeans to the question of Taiwan.

Trump is hoping for a “quick” understanding that could temporarily cool the trade war with Beijing. His wish list includes renewed Chinese purchases of U.S. agricultural goods, a crackdown on fentanyl trafficking, and a softening of China’s export restrictions on rare earth materials. In exchange, the president is prepared to extend a pause on tariff hikes, while keeping in place the barriers he considers essential for national security.

The American leader also has loftier ambitions: he has hinted at discussing a limited nuclear arms agreement with Xi and persuading him to pressure Vladimir Putin to end the war in Ukraine — a move that could bolster Trump’s self-styled image as a peacemaker, following the recent ceasefire between Israel and Hamas.

Yet expectations remain low. Analysts see little chance of a “grand bargain” between Washington and Beijing, given their deep strategic rifts. Xi is unlikely to yield control over China’s rare earth dominance, a cornerstone of its tech power, while Trump appears unwilling to make substantial concessions on Taiwan or on advanced semiconductor access.

After his meeting with Xi, Trump will embark on an intense Asian tour, stopping in Malaysia, Japan, and South Korea for a series of high-profile economic and diplomatic events. In Kuala Lumpur, he will attend the ASEAN summit before heading to Tokyo to meet Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, and finally to Seoul for talks with South Korean President Lee Jae Myung. Additional negotiations are expected with India and Brazil, along with a possible meeting with Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.

Trump hopes to return to Washington with tangible results he can showcase as victories. But observers warn that his hunger for quick wins could lead to risky concessions in the name of “show diplomacy” — a style that may prove more theatrical than strategic.

Andrea Pelucchi