LVMH surges after surprise sales rebound in q3, signaling renewed strength in luxury demand

Luxury giant LVMH saw its shares soar as much as 13% on Tuesday — the biggest intraday jump since January 2024 — after reporting an unexpected return to sales growth in the third quarter. The rebound, driven by strong performances across all divisions and improving trends in China, reignited optimism for the global luxury sector.

The Paris-based group, owner of Louis Vuitton, Dior, and Fendi, defied analyst forecasts that had anticipated a continued slowdown, instead posting 1% organic sales growth versus expectations for a 1% decline. The upbeat results triggered a rally among peers: Kering rose 7%, Swatch 6.8%, Burberry 6.5%, Hermès 6.2%, and Richemont 5.7%.

Analysts widely viewed the results as a sign that luxury demand, particularly in fashion and leather goods, is stabilizing after months of weakness linked to China’s uneven recovery and softer U.S. spending.

TD Cowen analysts Oliver Chen and Jonna Kim said the results “suggest a return to growth is possible next year,” citing Dior’s strong outperformance across all key markets. They raised their price target for LVMH shares to €550 from €500.

JPMorgan’s Chiara Battistini called the pace of recovery “encouraging,” highlighting broad-based momentum across regions and lifting her target to €545 from €525.

RBC Capital Markets’ Piral Dadhania described the rebound in organic sales within fashion and leather goods as “a step in the right direction,” adding that results exceeded both sell-side and buy-side expectations.

At Morgan Stanley, analyst Edouard Aubin noted that while the sales beat was modest, all five divisions topped forecasts, with Asia showing the biggest upside surprise — returning to year-on-year growth after a prior decline.

According to Bloomberg Intelligence, the improvement “may matter more for investor sentiment than for earnings revisions,” given renewed growth in China and the wider Asian market.

Despite today’s rally, LVMH shares remain down about 16% year-to-date, underperforming both the Stoxx 600 and the broader European luxury index. Still, the company’s third-quarter results suggest that the luxury sector’s long-awaited rebound might finally be underway.