The foundation for China’s economic recovery “needs to be further consolidated” amid ongoing external uncertainties, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) cautioned in a recent statement.
China economic recovery remains fragile: NBS
The remarks came alongside April activity data that painted a mixed picture of the country’s economic trajectory. Industrial production rose 6.1% year-on-year, outperforming forecasts of 5.5% but marking a slowdown from March’s robust 7.7% gain — the fastest pace in nearly four years. This suggests that while manufacturing remains resilient, growth momentum is tempering amid global headwinds.
On the consumption side, retail sales growth underperformed expectations, highlighting persistent weaknesses in domestic demand and sluggish income growth. The urban unemployment rate, however, showed a modest improvement, edging down to a four-month low of 5.1% in April from 5.2% in March, reflecting some stabilization in the labor market but still signaling challenges in the broader economy.
Fixed-asset investment up
Fixed-asset investment, a key driver of economic activity, increased by 4.0% year-to-date through April, slightly below the 4.2% forecast. Within this, real estate investment continued to weigh heavily, declining 10.3% year-on-year, underscoring the ongoing drag from a beleaguered property sector struggling with high debt levels and tighter regulations. Infrastructure spending, meanwhile, showed more resilience, helping to partially offset softness elsewhere.
Against this backdrop, Beijing’s recent agreement with Washington to roll back most tariffs for a 90-day period offers a tentative reprieve and a platform for further negotiations aimed at a more comprehensive trade deal. However, the NBS emphasized that uncertainties remain high, particularly relating to geopolitical tensions, global demand, and the potential expiration of the temporary tariff suspension. As such, policymakers are expected to continue implementing targeted stimulus measures to bolster domestic consumption and investment, while carefully managing financial risks and external vulnerabilities.
