Italian government lowers GDP growth estimates
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The Italian Council of Ministers approved the DEF (Economic and Financial Document) last night, revising Italy's GDP growth forecast to 0.6%, down from the 1.2% predicted in the Structural Budget Plan drafted by the Meloni government in October 2024.
Italian Minister of Economy, Giancarlo Giorgetti, positively commented on the temporary suspension of U.S. tariffs. However, he emphasized the cautious approach of the government regarding GDP growth projections, noting that the current political and economic context makes it extremely difficult to offer reliable forecasts. For the 2026-2027 period, GDP growth is expected to slow further to 0.8%, mainly due to ongoing political and trade uncertainties.
The DEF, which will be renamed the DFP (Public Finance Document) following a regulatory change, complies with the EU Regulation of 2024 on economic policies, budget surveillance, and the 2009 Public Accounting Law. However, it notably lacks measures and directives regarding the impact of U.S. tariffs. For 2025, the deficit-to-GDP ratio is forecast to be 3.3%, as estimated in the PSB, before gradually declining to below 3% by 2026, at 2.8%, and to 2.6% in 2027.
Italian Minister of Economy, Giancarlo Giorgetti, positively commented on the temporary suspension of U.S. tariffs. However, he emphasized the cautious approach of the government regarding GDP growth projections, noting that the current political and economic context makes it extremely difficult to offer reliable forecasts. For the 2026-2027 period, GDP growth is expected to slow further to 0.8%, mainly due to ongoing political and trade uncertainties.
The DEF, which will be renamed the DFP (Public Finance Document) following a regulatory change, complies with the EU Regulation of 2024 on economic policies, budget surveillance, and the 2009 Public Accounting Law. However, it notably lacks measures and directives regarding the impact of U.S. tariffs. For 2025, the deficit-to-GDP ratio is forecast to be 3.3%, as estimated in the PSB, before gradually declining to below 3% by 2026, at 2.8%, and to 2.6% in 2027.