U.S. tariffs dampening growth forecasts for Italy and the Eurozone
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S&P Global Ratings forecasts a slowdown in Italy's economic growth, predicting a 0.6% increase in 2025, down from the previous estimate of 0.9% in November. This slowdown is mainly attributed to the impact of the new US trade policy, which will significantly affect the global economic landscape in the coming months.
Italy’s economy may see a slight acceleration in 2026 (+1%) and 2027 (+1%), but analysts expect a 0.9% increase in 2028. Eurozone growth forecasts are also revised downward, from 1.2% in November 2024 to 0.9% for 2025. Growth is projected to accelerate to 1.4% in 2026 (from 1.3%) and 1.5% in 2027 (from 1.2%), with 2028 growth expected to remain at 1.5%.
According to S&P Global Ratings, political instability in the US and tariff policies implemented by the Trump administration are the primary drivers of the global growth slowdown. The rating agency also notes that European growth could slow in 2025 but may recover in 2026, driven by increased spending on defense and infrastructure.
Italy’s economy may see a slight acceleration in 2026 (+1%) and 2027 (+1%), but analysts expect a 0.9% increase in 2028. Eurozone growth forecasts are also revised downward, from 1.2% in November 2024 to 0.9% for 2025. Growth is projected to accelerate to 1.4% in 2026 (from 1.3%) and 1.5% in 2027 (from 1.2%), with 2028 growth expected to remain at 1.5%.
According to S&P Global Ratings, political instability in the US and tariff policies implemented by the Trump administration are the primary drivers of the global growth slowdown. The rating agency also notes that European growth could slow in 2025 but may recover in 2026, driven by increased spending on defense and infrastructure.