Australia to retain restrictive monetary policy: RBA minutes

Minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia's November policy meeting revealed that monetary policy will remain sufficiently restrictive until the central bank is confident that inflation is steadily moving toward its target.

Australia to retain restrictive monetary policy: RBA minutes

The RBA also emphasized its vigilance against upside inflation risks, noting that headline inflation is expected to stay within the 2–3% target range until Q3 2025, after which the scheduled end of energy rebates could cause a rise. Meanwhile, the outlook for underlying inflation has remained largely unchanged since the August meeting. Members agreed that future rate decisions will be data-dependent and based on evolving risk assessments, with the possibility of rate adjustments if the board believes the current policy stance is not restrictive enough.

Global view

On the global front, the RBA cited risks related to potential shifts in US policy after the presidential election and uncertainties about how other nations may respond. Regarding GDP, growth was subdued in Q2 but has likely strengthened since then, driven by sustained increases in household consumption starting in the second half of 2024.