More services than industry, in a phase of stagnation of exports and a sharp deceleration of investments.
Italy growth downwardly revised
The autumn report of the Confindustria Study Center paints a complex picture, not by chance dedicated in the heading to the “nodes of competitiveness”. The summary of the current difficulties for the Italian economy is the downward revision of growth, filed by one decimal point to 0.8% compared to the forecasts of last April, moving away from the hypothesis of achieving a growth point, as the Government itself (see the recent statements of Minister Giorgetti) had in fact already hypothesized a few days ago.
This Italian figure fits into a global picture of moderate expansion, the result of a soft landing in the United States (+2.3% this year, +2.8% next year) to which is added a holding of the Euro area (+0.7%) and a still sustained run (+4.4%) of emerging countries.
Europe in focus
Europe, which compared to other areas, is suffering from a gap linked to the strong reduction in both investments and household consumption, in both cases the result of the "hot" season on the interest rate front. The result is a decline in business confidence indices, which have been in a recession for 19 months now, reaching their lowest point in over four years. A reversal of the trend - the report explains - will only be visible in the second half of next year, as a result of a monetary policy that will have returned to neutrality by then.
If global tensions continue to be fueled by the mix of wars, freight and energy costs still at high levels, protectionism and uncertainties in multilateral relations, and the car crisis, some factors will play in favor of our economy in the future.
